Taleb: What Are Fat Tails?

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In the latest episode of his excellent mini-series, Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses an introductory lesson on fat-tails using the example of Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, or Jeff Bezos compared to the global population. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: Welcome back to the series on statistics and probability, especially probability. … Read More

Nassim Taleb: Why It’s Better To Panic Early

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Here’s a great little video by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Yaneer Bar-Yam discussing the overreaction to the Coronavirus and why its better to panic early. Here’s an excerpt from the discussion: You and I to conclude…You and I would rather be blamed for overreacting. That’s right. Okay, I want to … Read More

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: If An Investor Has A Risk Of Terminal Blowup, The “Potential Returns” Of His Strategy Are Totally Inconsequential

Johnny HopkinsNassim Taleb, Stock ScreenerLeave a Comment

Just been re-reading Nassim Taleb’s book – Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder, which includes a great passage on risk and a real-life example of how it applies in investing. Here’s an excerpt from the book: Under path dependence, one can no longer separate growth in the economy from risks of … Read More

Nassim Taleb: Economists Don’t Predict Better Than Cab Drivers. Typically A Little Worse, Often!

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Here’s a great interview with Nassim Taleb and Bob Shiller hosted by Nick Paumgarten at The New Yorker Summit. The panel is discussing economics, economists, and their role in finance. Taleb is asked the following question: Paumgarten: Is Economics Even A Science? And here is his Taleb’s response: Taleb: No, no, … Read More

Nassim Taleb: How Frequent The Profit Is Irrelevant; It Is The Magnitude Of The Outcome That Counts

Johnny HopkinsInvesting Strategy, Nassim TalebLeave a Comment

Here’s a great investing lesson by Nassim Taleb from his book Fooled by Randomness. Similarly to Michael Mauboussin in this article, Taleb makes the point that it’s not how frequently you profit from your investments that important, it’s the magnitude of the outcome that counts. Here’s an excerpt from the book: … Read More