Warren Buffett’s 90% Rule

Johnny HopkinsPodcastsLeave a Comment

During their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Huber, Taylor, and Carlisle discuss Warren Buffett’s 90% Rule. Here’s an excerpt from the episode:

Tobias: Before we came on, we were talking a little bit about Buffett’s 90%. Is it 90% confidence interval that firm’s earnings will be bigger in five years’ time? Is that how he characterizes the business will be bigger in five years’ time?

John: Yeah.

Jake: He bought exercise that they do in terms of– [crosstalk]

John: Yeah, it’s a super interesting little simple thought experiment that I thought was really neat. It’s basically like the first test is, is this company 90% likely to have greater earnings in five years or are you 90% confident that this company–? So, it’s companies that obviously within your ability to estimate that or predict that, but are you 90% confident that the company is going to be stronger in five years is how I would think about it.

Tobias: We were talking about some examples of that. Before Amazon, who did you mention before Amazon?

John: Well, we were talking about Dillard’s before we– [crosstalk]

Tobias: Was it Dillard’s? Yeah.

John: Before we turned it on. Yeah.

Tobias: Run us through that thought exercise, the Dillard’s?

You can find out more about the VALUE: After Hours Podcast here – VALUE: After Hours Podcast. You can also listen to the podcast on your favorite podcast platforms here:

Apple Podcasts Logo Apple Podcasts

Breaker Logo Breaker

PodBean Logo PodBean

Overcast Logo Overcast


Pocket Casts Logo Pocket Casts

RadioPublic Logo RadioPublic

Anchor Logo Anchor

Spotify Logo Spotify

Stitcher Logo Stitcher

Google Podcasts Logo Google Podcasts

For all the latest news and podcasts, join our free newsletter here.

FREE Stock Screener

Don’t forget to check out our FREE Large Cap 1000 – Stock Screener, here at The Acquirer’s Multiple:


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.