In their recent episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Cassel, Taylor, and Carlisle discussed Investors Always Say They’re Long-Term At The Top. Here’s an excerpt from the episode:
Tobias: I saw a statistic that 78% of folks have the $400. It could get hit with the $400 one-time expense that they weren’t expecting, which is like that’s unusually high. It’s not a public one.
Bill: Yeah. People are in good shape. Well, for now, fast forward a little while, but you know what was interesting about Walmart is, they said that they were– Hang on, I got to think about this. They said that they were overstaffed because they were expecting people to be out with COVID.
And then there were fewer people that were out with COVID than they expected. They were double stacked on their staffing expenses which, by the way, China, what the fuck are you doing? Stop the zero COVID policy. It’s totally junk unless you’re just waging economic warfare on us, which is bullshit and I do not trust it. My tinfoil hat is on.
Jake: Oh, we’re definitely demonetized at this point.
Bill: Anyway, I digress. I don’t care. Google’s in China’s pocket. I said it, anyway. So anyway, the overstaffing, now, you’ve got like these layoffs coming out of Silicon Valley, then you get the labor market gets a little more slack in it, then maybe people don’t have as much bargaining power, and then you don’t get the wage inflation, and then maybe the Fed doesn’t keep hiking, because they’re really worried about raises or inflation, wage pressures, then maybe you get them to ease, then what happens, I don’t know. This is an interesting time to play a time arbitrage game.
Bill: It always is, but everybody said they were really long term at the top. Let’s see.
Jake: Yeah. That’s a good point. Definitely a lot of long-term at the top.
Bill: And one follow on thought to that is, I think that the next time that everybody is talking about being so long term, I think a good thing to really sit through and think about is, what has happened in the last 10 years in my life and am I really getting paid for taking 10 years of duration or 20 or 30? I think a lot of people made– Look at Charlie and BYD. Even Charlie got into never sell and isn’t a never sell, right? So, I don’t think it’s necessarily wrong. I just don’t think it’s necessarily right. There’s nuance in life.
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