Bubbles Are Rational

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In their recent episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Brewster, Taylor, and Tobias Carlisle discussed Bubbles Are Rational. Here’s an excerpt from the episode:

Bill: My buddy said that, “It’s so algo driven now that if he puts in an actual bid, he can watch the entire market respond to his bid.” Now, he’s trading like a super niche product. It’s TAS, which is traded settlement. It’s only 30 minutes of the day that he trades every day, but he is a specialist in that market. He was just saying that, “There’s a lot less liquidity than he’s ever seen in his career.”

I wonder if that’s going on a lot of places and then if it is, I was listening to Soros speak about reflexivity and he said that like, “Bubbles, he actually thinks are very rational,” because if you think a bubble is coming, the rational thing to do is pile in and make a bunch of money. I wonder if some of these spikes are– I just don’t know how much of it’s like. People that see market structure issues, and they’re exploiting them, and they can just push the market much further, much faster than they used to be able to.

Jake: Because of the lack of depth to it?

Bill: Yeah. If you have some access to leverage or something and you just know that you can pound the book, I would probably do it if I knew how. I don’t and I have no circle, I have a square.

Jake: Square of competence? [laughs]

Tobias: Or, take a Hedron of confidence.

Jake: [laughs]

Bill: Anyway, that’s all I got.

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