Give Me Optimism, But Not Yet!

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Taylor, Brewster, and Carlisle discuss Give Me Optimism, But Not Yet! Here’s an excerpt from the episode:

Bill: Hedgeye, I think people have mixed opinions about Keith McCullough. He’s definitely an aggressive personality with his marketing sometimes. But I understand that. I’m intrigued by his framework. Long story short, they think there’s a massively strong probability that we’re going into what he calls quad four in the second quarter, and I don’t think it’s some big– You don’t have to be a genius to figure out why. [crosstalk] Yeah, you think about all the stimulus rolling off, and it’s not good for tech stocks quad four according to him. So, it’ll be interesting to watch.

Tobias: The only problem, I’ve been accused of this before. I authentically believe what I’m saying and I’m sure they did, too. But it definitely is the case that the pessimism sells better, attracts more attention than optimism does.

Optimism always looks really dumb when the market cracks. To Buffett’s great credit, and it’s taken me a long time to learn this too, because it’s not naturally my personality. But to be basically optimistic is usually the best position to be in.

Even if it turns out to be true that everything gets cracked, you just can’t trade in and out of it. It’s too hard. You’re better off deciding now what everything looks like at the bottom of the crack and then positioning yourself now.

Then that’s the way you should be running anyway or have a range of outcomes where you’ve got your right tail hedged which is going buying some leaps on the FAANGs, or the SaaS stocks, or whatever, and then hedge your left tail with– [crosstalk] This is not an investment advice, by the way.

Jake: Don’t you feel a little bit Augusty at this point, though, where it is like, “Give me optimism but not yet.” [laughs]

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