Howard Marks: Our Emotions Conspire To Make Us Do The Wrong Thing

Johnny HopkinsHoward MarksLeave a Comment

During his recent interview with the Edinburgh University Private Equity Society, Marks returned repeatedly to the idea that successful investing is less about forecasting and more about discipline in the face of pressure.

As he explained, “you must not be captive of your emotions.” That distinction matters. Marks does not argue for emotional absence, but for emotional control. He noted that “our emotions conspire to make us do the wrong thing,” particularly when prices rise or fall sharply.

When enthusiasm builds, “the rising enthusiasm would have you buy more at higher prices than at low ones,” while downturns push investors to sell precisely when patience is required. His conclusion is blunt: “clearly you cannot let your emotions be in control and you have to control them.”

That framework underpins Marks’ emphasis on what he called “counter emotionality.” In practice, this means acting rationally even when fear is present.

Reflecting on periods of financial stress, he offered a line that captures the mindset: “A battlefield hero isn’t someone who’s unafraid. It’s somebody who’s afraid and and does it anyway.” The goal is not comfort, but correct action.

Marks draws heavily on the idea of accepting change. He described the Japanese concept of mujo as recognition that “change is inevitable,” adding that “we can’t prevent it or alter it.”

Investors often waste energy wishing for different conditions, but as Marks put it, “we can’t say please sir I’d like a different environment.” The only relevant question is, “What do you do in today’s circumstances?”

That same realism informs his approach to valuation. Marks reiterated that only cash-flow-producing assets can be valued analytically. “I’d like to see somebody show me an analytically derived price for gold a year from now,” he said, arguing that assets without cash flow rely entirely on public opinion. “The only thing that supports gold in my opinion is public opinion,” a foundation he views as insufficient for disciplined investing.

Throughout the discussion, Marks stressed the importance of belief systems that allow flexibility without rigidity. “You have to have a model, a way of thinking,” he said, while warning that investors who cannot adapt “can never change, you can never adapt, you can never learn new things.” His solution is “guideposts, but not rigidity,” anchored by intrinsic value and risk awareness.

The conversation reinforces a simple but demanding idea: investing success comes from accepting uncertainty, resisting emotional impulses, and acting rationally within present conditions. As Marks summarized, “This is what I’m faced with today and I don’t know what I’m going to be faced with tomorrow. So what do you do today?”

You can watch the entire interview here:

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