85% Of Economists Polled Last Year Thought We’d Be In A Recession Right Now

During their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Taylor, Carlisle, and Brewster discussed 85% Of Economists Polled Last Year Thought We’d Be In A Recession Right Now. Here’s an excerpt from the episode:

Tobias: Just before you do, let me just say 85% of economists polled last year thought we’d be in a recession right now. Those poor fools. [Jake laughs] Imagine getting it that wrong.

Jake: Yeah, imagine.

Bill: Yeah. Well, so far we have escaped.

Jake: It turns out it’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.

Tobias: Indeed.

Bill: Sometimes I find it hard to even piece together the past.

Tobias: I don’t even know what’s going on now.

[laughter]

Bill: That’s right,

Tobias: JT, you want to hit us with our– Go through what we said would happen. Embarrass us.

Jake: So as a little reminder, these are pulled from Jason Zweig of Wall Street Journal. He has a Bias Buster Quiz. I haven’t seen if he’s putting it out yet again for this year. I hope he usually does. So when he does, I’ll retweet it again. Actually, you can find this Bias Buster Quiz as a checklist inside of Journalytic. That’s where I recorded it. So just to go backwards and set the context, we did this approximately a year ago. And the idea was to put forward what you thought was going to be the– or what you thought were going to be the numbers for different kind of big asset class numbers, returns, things like that.

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