Obesity Pills & Junk Food | The Acquirer's Multiple®

During their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Brewster, Taylor, and Carlisle discuss Obesity Pills & Junk Food. Here’s an excerpt from the episode:

Bill: How I feel about the market bringing it back to that–

Jake: Yeah.

Bill: I think there are probably opportunities in small. I think there are probably opportunities in the value bucket. Look, I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about here, but compound is a smart dude. I think these variable mortgage REITs probably have some opportunities that make sense. So, I think there’s opportunity. The broad market as defined by whatever the S&P, yeah, I don’t know.

Jake: [laughs] Broad market is just Tesla, Apple, Google, Amazon.

Bill: Well, even quality. Look, I get why people own– I saw a tweet that said like, “Oh, McDonald’s is at 37 times earnings. This is going to end well,” or something like that. I don’t know that I buy that.

Tobias: McDonald’s margins are up considerably too over the– [crosstalk]

Bill: It wins in a lot of scenarios.

Jake: Robots.

Bill: Probably going to give you a real return. If it’s only a two and a half percent real return, is that a lot? No, it’s not, but it’s probably real. That may better than a lot of businesses out there. So, I can understand why people are paying up, but I don’t think you’re going to get rich owning it, let’s put it that way, and you may lose wealth, but I don’t think you’ll end up in the poor house either, which is half the goal.

Jake: Yeah, that’s a good point. Don’t give it all back.

Tobias: Yeah, I don’t think it’s a donut, either. Big call there. Big call.

Jake: [laughs] Yeah. Never been against the American eater.

Bill: Yeah. Or, like coke, right? I think Coke is the same thing. I have thought it for a while. I remember the tweets, “Why is Coke trading where Google is?” Well, Coke isn’t getting attacked by Microsoft and the potential threat of AI. And you know that people are going to be fat next year. And now, you got the pills that you cannot be fat anymore. [crosstalk] Coke without– Yeah.

Jake: Diet Coke.

Bill: Yeah, that’s straight.

Jake: Why would I ever drink Diet Coke?

Bill: Diet Coke. My diet is the pill and then I drink the Coke. Who knows? Maybe that’s a growth engine.

Tobias: That pill is not amphetamines. The diet pills used to be like– it’s just basically some sort of speed. You just hopped up on speed all day long, and that’s how you lose weight. You just sweat it out. Jiggle it out.

Bill: Yeah, that’s right.

Tobias: What’s the mechanism that these diet pills? How do these diet pills actually work? In the 1800s, it was a tapeworm. Tapeworm and speed. So, we’ve decided that a tapeworm and speed aren’t good for you, but we’ve found some other way of making people lose weight with a pill that is good for you?

Jake: Oh, bloodletting, actually.

Tobias: Bloodletting. Yeah, just take a leg off.

Jake: 38.

Tobias: That’s blood there.

[laughter]

Bill: What I’ve heard is that it helps your metabolism optimize.

Jake: That’s– [crosstalk]

Bill: Yeah, right.

Jake: Bullshit.

Tobias: Optimization.

Bill: I’m with you. Yeah.

Tobias: Yeah, optimization.

Bill: It turns out you have a stroke at 55, but you’re skinny while it happens.

Jake: Have you seen that chart that shows– It’s like the most convoluted arrows and like a million things pointing around, and it’s just describing the most basic cellular processes. So, to imagine that you could go in there and monkey around with any of those and not just completely F something up is just– It really is the ultimate in a fatal conceit.

Bill: With that chart, were you talking about Sequoia talking about how they missed FRC or was that something else?

Jake: [laughs] Oops.

Tobias: Ooh. I’m not throwing shade. You all are smarter than me, but I did avoid that bloodbath. So, that was nice.

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