In this interview with Yicai Global, Howard Marks explains why this recession won’t last long. Here’s an excerpt from the interview:
Marks: Within the bounds of my limitations on forecasts Ivan I would say probably yes.
As I just finished saying the Fed is trying to weaken the economy to reduce inflation to a tolerable level without making it so weak that it falls into recession. And historically speaking this has been very difficult.
It hasn’t worked most times but again I want to caution you and your audience. The important thing is not yes/no in answer to your question, yes recession, no recession, the important question is if there’s a recession, how bad, how long, and my naïve view tells me that it will not be too strong a recession and will not last too long because… especially because the dynamics of labor demand are so strong.
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