Howard Marks: No One Could Have Predicted This Black Swan But Should Have Been Prepared

Johnny HopkinsHoward MarksLeave a Comment

Here’s a great discussion with Howard Marks and his team at Oaktree discussing the credit markets and relative value in today’s market. During the discussion Marks provides a key insight into what he’s been speaking about over the past few months which is while no one could have predicted this Black Swan, markets had been susceptible to an event like this. Here’s an excerpt from the discussion:

I’ve been thinking a lot lately about a memo I wrote about 20 years ago entitled  – You can’t predict. You can prepare. Certainly everything that’s happening today was unpredictable and in fact two months ago most people couldn’t think of a catalyst that could bring about a recession or a correction in the markets. But I think the key is, as you indicated in your remarks, we at Oaktree have felt that even though we couldn’t predict the events, we could prepare for them now.

That sounds like an oxymoron but I think that when the markets are such as they were 2, 6, 12, 36 months ago we can conclude that it is susceptible to an unpredictable Black Swan and consequently time to pull in our horns a little bit. I’m glad to say that I think we did. We’ll see if it works.

Additionally, this week Howard Marks also released a weekly update for his clients which you can find here:

Weekly Update – Oaktree Clients Only

You an watch the entire discussion here:

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