Aswath Damodaran – What’s Next? A Sharp Surge In Stock Prices Or A Sharp Correction?

Johnny HopkinsAswath DamodaranLeave a Comment

Great article and video by Aswath Damodaran called A Tale of Two Markets: Politics and Investing!

Damodaran says, “Seldom has there been such a divide between those who believe that we are on the verge of a massive correction and those who equally vehemently feel that this is the cusp of a new bull market, and between those who see unprecedented economic and policy uncertainty and market indicators that suggest the exact opposite. Is one side right and the other wrong? Is it possible that both sides are right? Or that both sides are wrong?”.

Here’s an excerpt from that article:

The first half of 2017 delivered some good news and some bad news on this front. The good news is that notwithstanding rumors of Fed tightening, treasury bond rates dropped from 2.45% on January 1, 2017 to 2.21% on June 1, 2017, and S&P 500 companies reported much stronger earnings for the first quarter, up almost 17% from the first quarter of 2016.

The bad news is that it seems a near certainty that Fed will hike the Fed Funds rate soon (though its impact on longer term rates is debatable) and that there is preliminary evidence that companies have slowed the pace of stock buybacks.

The bottom line, and this may disappoint those of you who were expecting a decisive market timing forecast, is that stocks are richly priced, relative to history, but not relative to alternative investments today.

Paraphrasing Dickens, we could be on the verge of a sharp surge in stock prices or a sharp correction, entering an extended bull market or on the brink of a bear market, at the cusp of an economic boom or on the precipice of a bust. I will leave it to others who are much better than me at market timing to make these calls and continue to muddle along with my stock picking.

You can read the full article here.

For more articles like this, check out our recent articles here.

FREE Stock Screener

Don’t forget to check out our FREE Large Cap 1000 – Stock Screener, here at The Acquirer’s Multiple:

unlimited

Join 11,510 other investors in search of undervalued stocks, value investing news, and investing strategies from the greats:

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.