The Icahn Strategy

Tobias CarlisleStudyLeave a Comment

From Icahn Enterprises L.P. December 2013 Investor Presentation: Across all of our businesses, our success is based on a simple formula: we seek to find undervalued companies in the Graham & Dodd tradition, a methodology for valuing stocks that primarily looks for deeply depressed prices. However, while the typical Graham … Read More

Movado Group, Inc. ($MOV): Cheap, safe and buying back stock

Tobias CarlisleStocks2 Comments

It’s no secret why Movado Group, Inc. ($MOV) is in the bargain bin. Investors fear that the beast of 1 Infinite Loop, Cupertino–Apple, Inc.–has done for watches what it did for Walkmans (the iPod), desktop PCs (the iMac), music (iTunes), laptops (the Macbook), and cell phones (the iPhone), not to … Read More

Changes to the Screeners’ Output

Tobias CarlisleStock Screener2 Comments

  I’ve retooled the screeners to add some new information at the request of some users. In addition to the acquirer’s multiple and its components–enterprise value and operating earnings–, and descriptive data–share price, symbol, name, industry, and market capitalization–the screener now shows several additional fundamental measures. Those measures include each … Read More

Alaska Air Group ($ALK) is well run and cheap

Tobias CarlisleStocks3 Comments

Lots of value investors find their own personal Waterloo in airline stocks (Buffett famously dumps money in the sector every decade or so). That might make the industry sound like a bad bet. Regardless, when I kick airlines out of my backtests, they tend to underperform, so I keep the industry … Read More

What happens to value in sideways markets: Shiller PE and expected returns using Hussman’s method

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Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price earnings (CAPE) ratio takes a 10-year inflation-adjusted average of the S&P500’s earnings to arrive at a price/earnings metric smoothed for the business cycle. It’s useful because earnings tend to be volatile and mean reverting. For example, the single-year PE metric peaked in 2009 at 125, indicating … Read More

S&P500 enterprise multiple 1990 to date

Tobias CarlisleStudy2 Comments

I like to check in occasionally to see where the S&P500’s average enterprise multiple stands. Right now it’s trading on just over 12x, where it’s been since the start of the year. It’s rarely been this expensive. Indeed, the average for the full period is 10.4, and it’s only exceeded this level … Read More

CNBC’s 9 stocks could be takeover targets

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CNBC recently screened for small- and mid-cap companies that could attract takeover offers on the basis of valuation. CNBC examined free cash flow yield, enterprise multiple, and total debt as a percentage of equity to find the following nine names emerged: Symbol Company Industry EV/EBITDA FCF Yield Debt % NPK National … Read More