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In this Addendum titled – Random Thoughts on the Identification of Investment Opportunities, Howard Marks explains why psychology is more crucial in investing than accounting or economics. He explains that future price changes depend on whether an investment becomes more popular or less popular over time. Investing is compared to … Read More

In his latest memo – The Folly of Certainty, Howard Marks critiques the diverse and often conflicting predictions about the upcoming presidential election, noting that intelligence and data analysis alone cannot ensure accurate forecasts. He references John Kenneth Galbraith’s insights on the fallibility of forecasters and the mistaken association of … Read More

In his book – Mastering The Market Cycle, Howard Marks explains why in order to make sound investment decisions, we must be alert and perceptive, using inference to understand market participants’ behavior and the investment climate. Observing current events and market sentiment—such as investor optimism or pessimism, media opinions, and … Read More

During his recent interview with Bloomberg, Howard Marks explains that leveraged companies will face difficulties renewing their debt and will incur higher costs, creating better investment opportunities. Six years ago, banks offered generous loans at low interest rates, but now the terms are much stricter. This shift particularly impacts private … Read More

Howard Marks emphasizes the importance of understanding and accepting the current investment environment, recognizing that it may not always present clear opportunities. Investors should assess market conditions accurately and act accordingly, avoiding actions based on ignorance or attempts to change the market. Marks’ investment philosophy is influenced by Japanese concepts, … Read More

In his recent market commentary, Howard Marks recommends investors recognize that the investment environment and starting points greatly impact their success, especially over shorter time horizons. Einstein’s quote about insanity can be reinterpreted to mean that expecting the same results in a different environment is also folly. The last decade … Read More

During this interview with Bloomberg, Howard Marks highlights the U.S economy’s swift recovery in the third quarter of 2020 despite stable interest rates and the absence of additional stimulus. He notes the robust performance of the labor market and investor confidence in the U.S, driven by its legal and economic … Read More

In his book – Mastering the Market Cycle, Howard Marks emphasizes understanding market cycles through two key assessments: quantitative analysis of valuations and qualitative observation of investor behavior. Valuations aligned with historical norms suggest the cycle isn’t highly extended. Observing investor behavior provides additional insights. These assessments help gauge the … Read More

During his recent interview on the In Good Company Podcast, Howard Marks outlines his six key principles for successful investing. Here’s an excerpt from the interview: My philosophy is I guess it’s Oaktree’s philosophy six very simple points. Number one risk control I believe it’s easy to make money in … Read More

In his book – Mastering the Market Cycle, Howard Marks argues that truly successful investors are neither overly aggressive nor defensive. They excel at both market timing and picking good investments. This “asymmetrical performance” means they have a higher win rate than the market. Most investors can’t do this, and … Read More

In his book – The Most Important Thing, Howard Marks highlights the importance of recognizing the limits of our knowledge in investing. If the future were certain, it would be rational to invest aggressively, targeting the biggest winners without fear of loss, making diversification unnecessary. However, because the future is … Read More

One of the best resources for investors are the publicly available 13F-HR documents that each fund is required to submit to the SEC. These documents allow investors to track their favorite superinvestors, their fund’s current holdings, plus their new buys and sold out positions. We spend a lot of time … Read More

In his book – Mastering The Market Cycle, Howard Marks explains the phenomenon of capitulation in financial markets. In the early stages of a bull or bear market, most investors refrain from joining the trend, lacking the insight or courage to act early. As the trend gains momentum, these investors … Read More

In his book – The Most Important Thing, Howard Marks highlights a fundamental lesson about decision-making: outcomes do not necessarily reflect the quality of decisions. He learned early at Wharton that external factors, often unpredictable, can determine the success or failure of decisions. This concept was further emphasized by Nassim … Read More

In his latest memo titled – The Impact of Debt, Howard Marks explains that leveraging debt is used to increase capital efficiency because debt is generally cheaper than equity, allowing greater asset ownership and potential profits when conditions are favorable. However, he warns that leverage also amplifies losses similarly when … Read More

During their latest discussion on The Insight, Howard Marks, Armen Panossian, and David Rosenberg discuss the current market environment. Here’s the main point from Howard Marks: Uncertainty in the Current Market: Marks highlights the numerous uncertainties in the current market environment, including geopolitical tensions, climate change, economic growth, inflation, and … Read More

In his book Mastering The Market Cycle, Howard Marks explains how understanding the interplay between market fundamentals and psychology is crucial, though it’s far from a neat or predictable process. Events can enhance psychological confidence, which in turn can bolster the economy and corporate profits, or vice versa. This interaction … Read More

In this presentation at the NBIM Investment Conference, Howard Marks discusses the strategy of identifying companies likely to deliver positive, unanticipated news, thus achieving above-average portfolio performance. By predicting such surprises and adjusting portfolio weights accordingly, an investor can benefit when the market reacts positively to the news, driving up … Read More

In this interview with CNBC, Howard Marks is convinced that AI will revolutionize the world, akin to the internet’s impact. Investing in AI, however, poses challenges. Just like the late ’90s TMT bubble, where internet stocks soared then crashed, predicting AI’s impact on portfolios isn’t straightforward. While it’s clear AI … Read More