Category Archive

During his recent interview with Barron’s, Howard Marks reflects on his early days in finance, noting that banks in the 1970s invested in the “Nifty Fifty” — America’s top-growing companies, seen as infallible regardless of price. Despite the companies’ quality, investors who held these stocks for five years lost over … Read More

During his recent interview with the 3 Takeaways Podcast, Howard Marks argues that economic forecasting is largely unhelpful for investors. He points out that even renowned investors like Warren Buffett avoid relying on economic or market predictions when making investment decisions. Instead, Buffett emphasizes the value of information that is … Read More

In his recent memo titled – Ruminating on Asset Allocation, Howard Marks argues that in an efficient market, the expected return rises proportionally with risk, meaning no position on the risk spectrum is inherently superior—all offer a similar risk-to-return ratio. This view assumes markets price assets fairly, negating the chance … Read More

In this interview with Global Money Talk, Howard Marks discusses the importance of flexibility over rigid rules in investing. He uses the example of a stop-loss order, which limits potential losses but may cause investors to miss out on future gains. There are no perfect rules that guarantee both safety … Read More

In his book – Mastering The Market Cycle, Howard Marks discusses the difficulty of timing market bottoms and the risk of waiting too long to invest. He discusses the concept of “falling knives,” where investors fear buying before a market decline stops, leading them to wait for certainty. However, by … Read More

In his book – The Most Important Thing, Howard Marks reflects on the 2004–2007 period, where investors mistakenly believed that cutting risk into small pieces and distributing it could eliminate risk. This false sense of security contributed to the financial crisis of 2008. Popular strategies like absolute return funds, low-cost … Read More

In his latest memo titled – Shall we Repeal The Laws of Economics?, Howard Marks reflects on his early understanding of economic systems, shaped by George Orwell’s Animal Farm. He highlights the dangers of centrally planned economies, using the book’s motto—”From each according to his ability, to each according to … Read More

In Part 9 of his series on How To Think About Risk, Howard Marks compares risk management in investing to automobile and life insurance. Just as we buy car insurance for peace of mind regardless of whether an accident occurs, investors should manage risk without expecting to avoid it entirely. … Read More

In his memo titled – What Really Matters, Howard Marks discusses the value of long-term investing over short-term market timing. He encourages investors to focus on holding quality investments rather than frequently trading, arguing that over-diversification and excessive trading often lead to suboptimal outcomes. He highlights Bill Miller’s insight that … Read More

In his memo titled – Getting Lucky, Howard Marks challenges the notion that success is solely the result of personal effort, emphasizing the significant role of luck. He shares personal anecdotes, including nearly joining Lehman Brothers, and reflects on how fortunate he has been throughout his career. Marks acknowledges that … Read More

During his recent Behind The Memo Podcast with Morgan Housel, Howard Marks discusses his philosophy on investing, emphasizing prudence, risk management, and the importance of long-term survival over short-term gains. Marks advocates for an optimizing approach, where investors carefully manage their risks to ensure they can weather the bad days, … Read More

One of the best resources for investors are the publicly available 13F-HR documents that each fund is required to submit to the SEC. These documents allow investors to track their favorite superinvestors, their fund’s current holdings, plus their new buys and sold out positions. We spend a lot of time … Read More

In his book – The Most Important Thing, Howard Marks explains that markets fluctuate between extremes, driven by the behavior of the crowd. Bull markets occur when more people are motivated to buy than sell, pushing prices higher. These extremes, however, signal inflection points where bullishness or bearishness reaches its … Read More

In his latest memo titled – Mr. Market Miscalculates, Howard Marks discusses how the market is driven by emotional, volatile investors who buy high during good news and sell low during bad news, causing prices to fluctuate significantly. However, only a small number of participants can create these dramatic price … Read More

At the opening of the Oaktree Conference 2024, Howard Marks argued that the economic environment is shifting from an unusually easy period for business, finance, and investing to one of increased normalcy. As a result, economic growth may slow, profit margins could shrink, and investor optimism may decline. Borrowing costs … Read More

During this interview with Yicai Global, Howard Marks emphasizes his expertise in debt over stocks and admits he is not a technology expert. He recalls the Internet bubble, noting that while the Internet did change the world, most tech stocks from that era became worthless. He draws a parallel with … Read More

In this interview with Goldman Sachs, Howard Marks discusses the discrepancy between private and public asset valuations. He emphasizes the importance of making intelligent investment choices based on relative value. He also references Warren Buffett’s analogy about buying more when prices are low, likening market declines to a sale, and … Read More

In this Addendum titled – Random Thoughts on the Identification of Investment Opportunities, Howard Marks explains why psychology is more crucial in investing than accounting or economics. He explains that future price changes depend on whether an investment becomes more popular or less popular over time. Investing is compared to … Read More

In his latest memo – The Folly of Certainty, Howard Marks critiques the diverse and often conflicting predictions about the upcoming presidential election, noting that intelligence and data analysis alone cannot ensure accurate forecasts. He references John Kenneth Galbraith’s insights on the fallibility of forecasters and the mistaken association of … Read More