Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM): A Deep Value Commodity Business

Johnny HopkinsStock ScreenerLeave a Comment

As part of our ongoing series at The Acquirer’s Multiple, each week we spotlight a stock from our Stock Screeners that may represent a deeply undervalued opportunity hiding in plain sight. This week’s spotlight is Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) — the largest producer and distributor of shell eggs in the United States, operating a uniquely cash-rich, debt-free balance sheet and generating extraordinary free cash flow through the current egg pricing cycle.


Business Overview
Cal-Maine Foods is the leading U.S. producer of shell eggs, supplying grocery retailers, foodservice distributors, and food manufacturers nationwide. Its operations span conventional, cage-free, organic, and specialty eggs, giving the company broad exposure across consumer price points and regulatory regimes.

CALM’s business is inherently cyclical, driven primarily by egg prices, feed costs, and flock productivity. However, the company’s scale, vertical integration, and disciplined cost structure allow it to outperform smaller producers during both strong and weak pricing environments. Unlike many commodity businesses, Cal-Maine has historically avoided leverage, allowing excess cash flow to directly accrue to shareholders.


What Is IV/P (Intrinsic Value to Price)?
IV/P measures how much intrinsic value you receive for every dollar paid in market price, incorporating earnings power, reinvestment efficiency, and capital distribution.

IV/P > 1 indicates undervaluation, while IV/P < 1 indicates overvaluation.

CALM’s IV/P = 8.60, meaning intrinsic value is estimated to be more than eight times the current share price. This is an exceptionally high reading and places CALM among the most statistically undervalued stocks in the market.


Supporting Metrics
Market Cap: ≈ US$ 4.0B
Enterprise Value: ≈ US$ 2.7–2.8B
Free Cash Flow (TTM): ≈ US$ 1.21B
FCF Yield: ≈ 40–45% on EV
Acquirer’s Multiple: AM = 1.7

An Acquirer’s Multiple of 1.7 is extraordinarily low. It implies that an acquirer could theoretically recoup the full enterprise value in under two years of operating earnings — a level typically reserved for distressed assets, not dominant industry leaders with fortress balance sheets.


Revenue & Profitability
Trailing twelve-month revenue is approximately US$ 4.40B, with operating income of about US$ 1.60B, producing an operating margin near 36%. Net income stands at roughly US$ 1.27B, translating to a net margin of approximately 29%, while diluted EPS is around 26.0.

These profitability levels are exceptional for an agricultural producer and reflect the company’s powerful operating leverage during favorable pricing environments.


Balance Sheet Strength
Cal-Maine’s balance sheet is a key differentiator. The company holds approximately US$ 1.25B in cash, carries no meaningful debt, and maintains shareholders’ equity of roughly US$ 2.7B, with working capital near US$ 1.58B.

This debt-free structure provides significant downside protection during industry downturns and gives management substantial flexibility for dividends, acquisitions, or opportunistic reinvestment.


Capital Returns
Over the trailing twelve months, CALM has paid approximately US$ 407M in dividends, primarily through its variable dividend framework. Free cash flow totaled roughly US$ 1.21B, with minimal reliance on share repurchases.

Given the company’s IV/P of 8.60, current capital returns appear highly accretive, as shareholders are effectively receiving distributions at a deep discount to intrinsic value.


Why CALM Might Be Undervalued
The market appears to be pricing CALM as though current earnings are purely temporary and assigns limited long-term value to its cash-generation ability. Despite producing over US$ 1.2B in free cash flow, the company trades at an enterprise value below US$ 3B.

CALM’s debt-free balance sheet materially reduces risk relative to commodity peers, while its IV/P of 8.60 and Acquirer’s Multiple of 1.7 signal extreme undervaluation rarely seen in high-quality operating businesses.


Conclusion
With an IV/P of 8.60, an ultra-low Acquirer’s Multiple of 1.7, more than US$ 1.2B in trailing free cash flow, and a net-cash balance sheet, Cal-Maine Foods screens as one of the most compelling value opportunities in the market today.

While earnings will normalize as egg prices fluctuate, the current valuation implies an overly pessimistic long-term outlook. For value investors comfortable with cyclicality and focused on cash flow, balance sheet strength, and margin of safety, CALM appears materially mispriced relative to its intrinsic earning power.

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