Michael Burry doesn’t make small trades. When the man who called the housing crash places a bet, it’s usually with both fists. And based on his latest 13F filing, Burry is going all-in on a simple thesis: AI stocks are overheated and Chinese tech isn’t coming back anytime soon.
Let’s start with the biggest position—a $97.5 million put option on NVIDIA. That’s nearly half his entire portfolio in a single short bet. Burry is staring down the most beloved AI stock on the planet and saying, “Not buying it.” Literally. He’s betting it drops.
And he didn’t stop there.
Burry stacked up more puts—this time on a who’s who of Chinese internet giants: Alibaba, JD.com, PDD Holdings, Trip.com, and Baidu. All five are bearish positions, and together they make up roughly 44% of his book. He’s not nibbling around the edges—this is a macro trade against the China recovery story.
What’s behind this aggressive move? It could be a mix of things: slowing economic growth in China, weak consumer data, mounting geopolitical tensions, and fading enthusiasm around Chinese tech stocks that have struggled to regain investor trust post-regulatory crackdowns.
Meanwhile, back in the U.S., NVIDIA’s valuation has soared on the back of the AI boom. To Burry, that might look like another bubble inflating—ripe for a correction.
So what’s he actually long?
Just one name: Estee Lauder. And interestingly, he doubled that stake this quarter. The luxury cosmetics giant has taken a hit in recent months, especially on the China side. Maybe Burry sees it as a turnaround story or a way to gain selective exposure to global consumers at a discount.
But that’s it. One long. Everything else is a bet that certain stories—AI mania and the China rebound—are overblown.
Burry has never been afraid to be early, and he’s always willing to be alone. He once said, “The more I study history, the more I realize how little people learn from it.” Maybe this is his way of saying we’ve forgotten how quickly sentiment can shift.
Either way, when Burry takes this kind of stance, it’s important to listen. Time will tell if he’s once again ahead of the curve, or if the market will make him wait.
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