As part of a new series, each week we typically conduct a DCF on one of the companies in our screens. This week we thought we’d take a look at one of the stocks that are not currently in our screens, The Walt Disney Co (DIS).
Profile
Walt Disney owns the rights to some of the most globally recognized characters, from Mickey Mouse to Luke Skywalker. These characters and others are featured in several Disney theme parks around the world. Disney makes live-action and animated films under studios such as Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm and also operates media networks including ESPN and several TV production studios. Disney shifted into a more streaming-focused firm by acquiring the remainder of Hulu and launching Disney+ and ESPN+. Across its streaming platforms, Disney had over 235 million subscribers as of September 2022, up sharply from under 64 million in December 2019.
Recent Performance
Over the past twelve months the share price is down 1.18%.
Inputs
- Discount Rate: 8.81%
- Terminal Growth Rate: 2%
- WACC: 8.81%
Forecasted Free Cash Flows (FCFs)
| Year | FCF (billions) | PV(billions) |
| 2024 | 3.36 | 3.11 |
| 2025 | 3.59 | 3.07 |
| 2026 | 3.84 | 3.04 |
| 2027 | 4.1 | 3.00 |
| 2028 | 4.38 | 2.97 |
Terminal Value
Terminal Value = FCF * (1 + g) / (r – g) = 73.24 billion
Present Value of Terminal Value
PV of Terminal Value = Terminal Value / (1 + WACC)^5 = 49.62 billion
Present Value of Free Cash Flows
Present Value of FCFs = ∑ (FCF / (1 + r)^n) = 15.19 billion
Enterprise Value
Enterprise Value = Present Value of FCFs + Present Value of Terminal Value = 64.81 billion
Net Debt
Net Debt = Total Debt – Total Cash = 32.25 billion
Equity Value
Equity Value = Enterprise Value – Net Debt = 32.56 billion
Per-Share DCF Value
Per-Share DCF Value = Enterprise Value / Number of Shares Outstanding = $17.79
Conclusion
| DCF Value | Current Price | Margin of Safety |
|---|---|---|
| $17.79 | $95.07 | -434.41% |
Based on the DCF valuation, the stock is overvalued. The DCF value of $17.79 per share is lower than the current market price of $95.07. The Margin of Safety is -434.41%.
It is important to note that this valuation is based on a number of assumptions, and these assumptions could change in the future. This valuation is meant to be a back-of-the-envelope analyse that could be used as a starting point in a much more thorough valuation process. As a result, it is important to do your own research before making any investment decision.
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