Bankruptcy Gamblers | The Acquirer's Multiple®

During their recent episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Taylor, Brewster, and Carlisle discussed Bankruptcy Gamblers. Here’s an excerpt from the episode:

Tobias: It’s just the market is full of gamble at the moment. I doubt that most people who are buying that even know that it’s in bankruptcy. But if they do, you just look at something that’s down gigantically and you think, “Well, if this thing goes back to where it was, that’s like a 10x. Gonna make so much money here. It’s worth having a punt on it. It’s worth gambling on.” So, they put a position on, 10x it, let’s go find some other bankrupt stocks to buy. It’s like why wouldn’t you?

Jake: Yeah. I think there was somebody was talking about how the NBA season is starting up soon. And if you don’t understand why that’s bearish for this market. I find that to be very compelling actually. Having another outlet for gambling.

Tobias: Was it Meb?

Jake: No, I forget who said it.

Tobias: I saw Meb commenting on it, I think.

Jake: Oh, is that right? I think there’s some truth to that maybe.

Bill: Although honestly, my draft king is Jimmy Chill, says, “Who cares if it’s worth this valuation? Every game, people will buy the stock”

Jake: Yeah.

Tobias: The Ramtel boys have got a betting ETF out, Betz, B-E-T-Z. They’re good fellas, so check it out.

Bill: Yeah, there’s no possible way that that’s toppy. Also, if you’re just tuning in, this is not investment advice at all. Do your own due diligence please, don’t come here for that.

Tobias: I’ve got just like a running list of all of the crazy stuff I’ve seen in this market. I’ve just been writing it down since we’ve been talking. So, the Hertz’s bankrupty, that’s been on us. We’ve seen that kind of behavior in Tilray, we saw it in Beyond Meat, we saw it in Tesla, happens all the time. And Tesla repeatedly. Davey Day Trader, what a phenomenon. He’s a hilarious guy, gotta watch out. I’ve got no idea if he’s making money or not. But it’s funny as hell. Tesla gets a competitor. They name it Nikola. I don’t know if he’s got a middle name, but if he does, then we’re gonna go get that dotcom and launch that piece of dog shit.

Bill: Wait, before we get into this, wasn’t Ubben behind this? Ubben’s no joke.

Tobias: I don’t know. He’s gone the sideways a little bit recently. We’ll see.

Bill: Just saying.

Tobias: Is that how you say it? Ubben, two Bs?

Bill: I don’t know.

Tobias: No, he’s very smart.

Bill: I don’t have a strong view on that one. Only because I don’t know.

Tobias: But he’s not buying that retail. He’s buying the spec, like this is– I endorse, this kind of strategy, go buy the spec. Wait first, get taken over then, wait for it to rip 70% or whatever. That bloke, it’s like a $9 billion–That guy’s worth $9 billion. The whole thing’s like $30-billion-dollar enterprise. Got no products. Just got a name.

Bill: Dude, I don’t disagree with you. When somebody asked me about Chamath and his back, read spec documents and see what the guys that put the spec together, their deal and your deal are completely fucking different.

Tobias: Ubben is a seller in that scenario, he’s not a buyer in that scenario. You’re on the wrong side of the table.

Bill: Yeah, that’s right. He created the pixie dust. You’re just buying it at a huge premium to what he paid. It’s actually a great value investment if you can pull it off.

Tobias: I’ve got some more stuff on my list. I got Druck, missed it again.

Bill: Yeah, loser.

Tobias: if he goes all in [crosstalk] It sounds like he was getting ready to pull the trigger again.

Bill: Yeah.

Jake: Is this him getting sucked into TMT and 99 all over again?

Tobias: That’s what I’m thinking. The real Harbinger last time was Tiger closing up shop in March 2000 with Julian Robertson saying, “I don’t understand this market anymore.” Ring a bell, that’s the top. So, what’s the equivalent now?

Jake: Baupost, I don’t know.

Tobias: Yeah, let’s see if we can– I think we’re live. Hold on, let’s see. Gonna have to edit this one a little bit?

Bill: Little? Just a little?

Tobias: Sorry, team. Mouse fell out of the wheel.

Bill: We’re back.

Tobias: I got him back in his wheel.

Bill: Hey, they say, “We’re back.”

Tobias: Sorry.

Bill: What’s up, people? Yeah, so Toby, who’s your internet three? You better not say Charter.

Tobias: That was Cox.

Jake: Yeah, it was.

Bill: Come to the good guy.

Tobias: But do I have any choice? There’s one choice, isn’t there? Otherwise, it’s like satellite, which is like dialup.

Bill: Sort of point of the industry structure that I like, but yes. You don’t have much choice.

Tobias: What a disaster.

Bill: Also, we still can’t see your video, at least Jake’s on the–

Tobias: It’s on.

Bill: I don’t know. All right. Well– [crosstalk]

Tobias: I’m pretty sure it’s going– Hey team, guys who are out there, can you tell me if you can see my video? Is it coming through?

Bill: Fire the tech team. The people are upset, sir.

Tobias: Yeah, I’m gonna take the tech team and kick the shit of them. [laughs]

Bill: I’m gonna have to turn off these comments. I can see them, they are sort of tough.

Tobias: But I can see it’s awesome.

Bill: [crosstalk] talk about European stocks. I can but it wouldn’t do any good. I don’t know anything. Anyway, where were we? I don’t know JT was about to say something about Baupost and then the powers that be at Google shut us down.

Tobias: Yeah. We got shut down.

Jake: Make sense.

Tobias: Too political, too much truth. That’s what happens.

Bill: Yeah, that’s right. Yeah, you start talking [crosstalk] or COVID-19 and you’re not making any money.

Tobias: Too much truth.

Bill: All right. Well, we’re gonna have to get this going again.

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