In his recent CNBC conversation Howard Marks reflected on a global landscape defined by rapid change and growing unpredictability. As he put it, “the global landscape is in transition.” What once felt like small policy differences between leaders has become far more consequential. “If we thought in the past the difference between one president and another or one party and another was something like this and and now we’re talking about a much bigger difference and things are happening that that were not considered in the past.”
That transformation, Marks noted, has ushered in “a lot of unpredictability, a lot of volatility, but also a lot of change.” Yet his tone wasn’t alarmist—it was analytical. He sees a realignment of economic and political power that investors must adapt to, not fear.
On U.S.–China relations, Marks emphasized realism over rivalry. “These are two great powers both of which possess great strengths, both of which need the other,” he said, adding that “it’s really important to realize that in its 80 or 100 years of primacy in the world the US has really never had a real rival.”
The Soviet Union, he noted, “was a facade. China is a real rival. It has great strengths. It has dynamism. It has rapid growth. It has enormous human resources and focus and purposefulness.” The essential challenge, Marks said, is for America “to learn to live with the strong legitimate rival. But rivals don’t have to be enemies.”
When asked about China’s prospects, Marks was constructive. “China has massive opportunities, the enormous population, the wealth and the purposefulness,” he explained. “It is on the dawn of creating a large middle class, consumer class of benefiting from strong domestic demand in addition to its role in the economy.” He noted that OakTree has been “participating in a major way” for two decades and remains “very excited to be part of that.”
Turning to artificial intelligence, Marks was candid about the uncertainty surrounding its market impact. “Nobody knows how, when, with what effect, with what profitability, who the leaders will be.”
He acknowledged that “AI will change the world” but warned that “every movement in the markets is embedded by the words it’s different this time.” The real question, he said, is “whether the difference has been accurately gauged or overestimated.”
In his characteristic way, Marks left listeners with perspective rather than prediction. The investing environment, he implied, is shifting underfoot—but adaptation, pragmatism, and humility remain the investor’s best tools.
You can watch the entire interview here:
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