When it comes to markets, Jamie Dimon has seen enough cycles to know when something smells off—and right now, he’s not buying the optimism.
“Personally, I don’t like making forecast stuff like that,” Dimon says. But that doesn’t stop him from issuing a clear warning. “I am not a buyer of credit today. I think credit today is a bad risk.”
It’s the kind of assessment that tends to land differently coming from the CEO of JPMorgan Chase. Dimon has lived through enough downturns to develop a healthy skepticism of easy markets and short memories.
“I think that people who haven’t been through major downturns are missing the point about what can happen in credit,” he cautions.
But he’s not all doom and gloom. For those who can weather the storm, opportunity awaits.
“There will be a huge opportunity for this company too. That’s the other thing about downturns, you know, in a downturn… You earn your stripes with your clients in a downturn.”
That long-term mindset is vintage Dimon. “Good companies benefit from a downturn,” he says. “You know, not your short term profits, but your long term company.”
While many in the market appear unbothered by geopolitical risk and economic headwinds, Dimon sees red flags piling up—particularly on the trade front.
“I look at the things being up, including trade. Trade in general, because not just tariffs create a lot of risk out there and that we should be prepared for it.”
And yet, markets continue to brush it off.
“My own view is, people feel pretty good because you haven’t seen an effect of tariffs. The market came down 10%, back up 10%. I think that’s an extraordinary amount of complacency.”
Dimon’s broader concern is that we’re underestimating the systemic impact of these slow-burning pressures.
“When I’ve seen all these things adding up that are on the fringes of extreme kind of thing, I don’t think we could predict the outcome.”
And he’s especially worried about inflation and its cousin, stagflation. “I think the chance of inflation going up and stagflation will be higher than other people think.”
Even at current levels, the threat is real. “They stay where they are today, that’s pretty extreme tariffs. And you also don’t know how every country is going to respond and they are responding.”
Rewiring global trade is no quick fix. “Even if you want to bring manufacturing back, it takes 3 to 4, a minimum to build a real manufacturing plant years.”
You can watch the discussion here:
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