Howard Marks has this gift for cutting through the noise. At Global Alts Miami 2025, he didn’t come with a market prediction or some flashy hot take on tech. In fact, when asked about Nvidia’s big 16% drop thanks to a new Chinese chatbot, he shrugged and said, “I don’t have a take on the tech space. I don’t know anything about tech.” Classic Marks—he stays in his lane, and it works.
What he did have was insight on what really drives markets: psychology. He explained, “Psychology is by far the dominant influence on investing in the short run. It has very little to do in the short run with fundamentals.”
That’s why one stock’s stumble sends shockwaves across unrelated sectors. It’s not logic—it’s emotion. And when markets get irrational, people follow the herd. As he put it, “FOMO takes over from the fear of losing money,” and you start seeing valuations shoot up for no real reason other than vibes.
He didn’t just stop at market moods though. He zoomed out to the big picture—the sea change in interest rates. Marks reminded the audience, “In 1980, I had a loan… at 22 and a quarter. And 40 years later… I was able to borrow at two and a quarter.” That massive drop in rates? It was like a moving walkway. Investors thought they were getting ahead thanks to skill, but really “it was the rates.”
Now, that trend has reversed, and he’s clear: “The things that worked the best in a period of declining and ultra-low rates will not necessarily be the things that work best in a period of stable and generally higher rates.”
When it comes to strategy, Marks isn’t panicked—he’s practical. On private credit and distressed debt, he said, “The only thing that ever makes me nervous is that we won’t have great things to buy.” He’s not worried about volatility. He’s watching for opportunity, especially when overleveraged companies can’t refinance in a higher-rate world. “Then we’ll have more to do.”
And maybe the best part of the talk came at the very end. Asked if he’d slow down, the 79-year-old didn’t miss a beat: “Why?… I’m not a golfer… it’s stimulating what I do and I’m blessed with good genes and I can keep going.”
That’s Howard Marks in a nutshell: steady, sharp, and still having fun.
You can watch the entire interview here:
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