Howard Marks is the kind of investor who challenges the way you think. In this interview, he shares insight after insight, all with the steady, grounded perspective that only comes from decades of navigating real markets.
What really stands out is his consistent focus on risk. “The challenge, the real skill is to make money with the risk under control,” he says. That’s a reminder that anyone can look like a genius in a bull market — the true test is how you hold up when things get rough.
He lays out Oaktree’s six-part philosophy, and it’s all about discipline. Risk control, consistency, focusing on inefficient markets, specialization, avoiding macro forecasts, and not trying to time the market.
On macro forecasting, he’s blunt: “My experience with forecasters basically in my opinion showed me that it doesn’t work.” He compares economists to portfolio managers who “never marks the market” — meaning they don’t have to live with their bad calls.
Marks talks a lot about how randomness plays a massive role in investing. “You can’t tell the quality of a decision from the outcome,” he says. “There are stupid people who get rich… he was right for the wrong reason.”
That’s a powerful reminder that outcomes don’t always reflect skill, and that being right once doesn’t make you smart — being consistently right over decades does.
He also has some great stuff on market cycles. He says the most common mistake investors make is thinking “that once the market is moving in one direction, that it will always continue to do so.”
Instead, he leans on mean reversion: “Regression toward the mean or the correction of excesses is much more dependable than continued moving in a straight line.” The best time to forecast, according to him, is when markets hit extremes — like bubbles or crashes. Otherwise, don’t bother.
He’s also not afraid to admit when he doesn’t know something, which is rare in finance. “Excessive certainty is the enemy. Acknowledging your limitations is your friend.” That humility, combined with deep conviction, is part of what makes him so respected.
Maybe the best advice for young investors comes at the end. “If you’re the kind of person who has to be right all the time, don’t become an investor,” he says. Investing isn’t about always being right — it’s about playing a game of probabilities, staying in the game, and daring to be different. As he puts it, “If we avoid the losers, the winners take care of themselves.”
You can watch the entire interview here:
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