Howard Marks – The Poor Man’s Guide To Market Assessment

One of my favorite investing books is The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor, by Howard Marks. The book includes passages from Marks’ memos to illustrate his investment philosophy. In Chapter 15 Marks provides a very simple example of how to identify the current state of any market using what he calls his  – Poor Man’s Guide To Market Assessment. Here’s an excerpt from that book:

THE POOR MAN’S GUIDE TO MARKET ASSESSMENT

Here’s a simple exercise that might help you take the temperature of future markets. I have listed a number of market characteristics. For each pair, check off the one you think is most descriptive of today. And if you find that most of your checkmarks are in the left – hand column, as I do, hold on to your wallet.