Where TLK sits among all investable US stocks
Cheapness against five-year return on assets, as percentiles. Upper left is cheaper with higher returns; larger dark dots are its industry (General Telecommunications Services).
TLK is a cheap, high-return telecom with a live buyback and asset sales planned, but state control caps the odds of a takeover.
Telkom Indonesia is a state-controlled telecom whose main unit, Telkomsel, sells mobile and broadband. Its US shares are down 46.0% over five years, while peers rose 46.4% and the S&P 500 rose 70.9%. Q3 margins missed management's target, and foreign selling of Indonesian stocks has weighed. Is it a bargain or a trap? The numbers say bargain: 6.2× operating income, strong returns, real cash, and a live buyback, though the state holds control.
The last five years on the numbers
Where TLK has ranked among investable US stocks each quarter since 2021. Hollow dot: five years ago; solid dot: the latest quarter. The share price over the same years is in the five-year record below.
Cheap and high quality: low multiple, strong returns on assets.
6.2× EV to operating income: 4th percentile of investable US stocks, return on assets 83rd percentile. Cheapest of 26 in industry (median 65th). 16.1% earnings yield vs 4.9% Treasury; FCF yield 21.7%, 96th percentile. Net debt $2.3B.
Against the market, its industry and sector
TLK as a percentile of all 3,202 investable US stocks, against the 25 in General Telecommunications Services and the 34 in the Telecommunications sector.
| Metric | TLK | Position | In its industry | Industry median | Sector median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquirer's Multiple | 4th | The cheapest of 26 | 65th | 38th | |
| Free cash flow yield | 96th | #2 of 26 | 57th | 63rd | |
| Shareholder yield | 92nd | The highest of 26 | 36th | 49th | |
| Dividend yield | 97th | #2 of 26 | 26th | 26th | |
| Return on assets, 5-yr avg | 83rd | #3 of 26 | 35th | 39th | |
| Debt to book equity | 52nd | #8 of 26 | 74th | 74th | |
| Market cap | 77th | #8 of 26 | 50th | 54th |
Percentiles of the number itself. For the Acquirer's Multiple and debt to equity, lower is better: the 5th percentile on the multiple is cheaper than 95% of investable US stocks. Green is the better end, red the worse. Orange dot: TLK; bar: industry median; diamond: sector median. TLK is outside the investable set (for example a foreign ADR), so it is placed against investable US stocks. Data as of 2026-10-31.
Price v Return
What the shares and assets earn, against the 10-year Treasury.
Its industry against its own history
General Telecommunications Services report →Industry multiple: 65th percentile, cheaper than in 32% of quarters since 1999. Return on assets 35th percentile (usual range). Free cash flow yield 58th percentile, higher than in 79% of quarters. TLK is cheap against its industry.
| Metric | Percentile now | Usual range | Against its history | Last 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquirer's Multiple | 65th | 42nd–72nd | Usual range | |
| Free cash flow yield | 58th | 27th–63rd | Higher than usual | |
| Shareholder yield | 37th | 35th–61st | Lower than usual | |
| Dividend yield | 26th | 24th–30th | Usual range | |
| Return on assets, 5-yr | 35th | 22nd–53rd | Usual range | |
| Debt to equity | 74th | 62nd–78th | More debt than usual | |
| Company size | 51st | 40th–64th | Usual range |
The industry's median stock as a percentile of all investable US stocks on each number. For the Acquirer's Multiple and debt to equity, lower is better: the 10th percentile is cheaper than 90% of the market. For yields, returns and size, higher is bigger. Usual range covers the middle 80% of quarters since 1999; it's the shaded band in each chart. Each chart is zoomed to its own range (the numbers on the left): green shading marks the metric's better side and red its worse side, the dashed line is the 50th percentile, and the dot is today, coloured by where it sits.
A buyback is live; stake sales add upside, but no bid exists.
IDR 4 trillion buyback runs to June 2027; more than IDR 3 trillion remained October 19 and management plans to accelerate. NeutraDC sale seeking $1 billion to $1.5 billion targeted end-2026. No activist or bid.
Catalyst check
Likelihood of a catalyst: ModerateA buyback is being used and asset sales are planned, but state control and the special share make a takeover hard.
State control and weak margins limit takeover odds and raise trap risk.
Danantara holds 52.09% plus a government special share. Q3 EBITDA margin 48.9% missed the above-50% target; reported net income fell 4.3%. MSCI downgrade and 2027 capex are flagged risks. Net debt is 21.0% of market cap.
Value-trap check
Grades miss state control and MSCI-driven foreign selling, which can keep a cheap ADR cheap despite strong cash flow.
Mostly Telkom's own slump, with Indonesian market shocks adding to it.
Peak April 2022 to April 2025: −53.2% while peers rose 36.6%, attributed to the company (GoTo losses, weak earnings). The 2025 trough was market-driven. From the January 2026 peak, −47.6% to October, against peers +11.7%.
Five years of moves
TLK −46.0% since 2021-11-01, against the median of AMX, PHI, TIGO, TKC, VEON +46.4%, Communication Services (XLC) +37.4% and the S&P 500 (SPY) +70.9%. Numbered dots mark inflections (peaks and troughs); shaded bands mark divergences from the sector or market.
What drove each turning point
| # | Turning point | TLK | Peers | Sector | S&P 500 | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Divergence vs sector · 2021-11-12 → 2022-09-30 | +17.4% | −37.6% | −40.5% | −22.4% | Company |
| Company-driven: TLK rose 17.4% while peers fell 37.6% and the sector 40.5%. Mitratel raised Rp18.79 trillion in its IPO, and H1 2022 net income rose 6.9%. indopremier.com (1387 days ago); telkom.co.id | ||||||
| 2 | Peak · 2022-04-14 → 2025-04-04 | −53.2% | +36.6% | +35.2% | +20.6% | Company |
| Company-driven: TLK fell 53.2% while peers rose 36.6%. GoTo fell 63% in Q4 2022, and 2024 revenue rose just 0.5% with net profit down 3.7%. simplywall.st; thejakartapost.com (561 days ago) | ||||||
| 3 | Divergence vs sector · 2022-09-30 → 2025-02-28 | −45.8% | +139.9% | +117.9% | +71.8% | Company |
| Company-driven: TLK fell 45.8% while peers rose 139.9%. GoTo losses hit reported earnings, and 9M 2024 net income fell 9.4%. telkom.co.id (1038 days ago); recursivegains.com (79 days ago) | ||||||
| 4 | Divergence vs sector · 2025-02-28 → 2026-01-23 | +63.8% | +20.7% | +16.1% | +17.4% | Company |
| Company-driven: TLK rose 63.8% against peers' 20.7%. A Rp3,000 billion buyback and approval of the InfraNexia spin-off came in the window. SEC filing; telkom.co.id (326 days ago); investortrust.id (39 days ago) | ||||||
| 5 | Trough · 2025-04-04 → 2026-01-23 | +71.2% | +38.9% | +35.3% | +37.6% | Market |
| Market-driven: Indonesian stocks fell hard, with a trading halt and tariff volatility. The rebound was TLK +71.2% against peers +38.9% and sector +35.3%. finance.binus.ac.id (568 days ago); rri.co.id (278 days ago) | ||||||
| 6 | Peak · also −53.0% vs market · 2026-01-23 → 2026-10-16 | −47.6% | +11.7% | −4.8% | +11.6% | Company |
| Mostly company: TLK fell 47.6% against peers' +11.7% and the sector's −4.8%. MSCI warned on Indonesia's investability, and Q3 EBITDA margin of 48.9% missed guidance. Yahoo Finance (279 days ago); Investing.com (0 days ago) | ||||||
Prices: daily closes. Peers chosen by the AI analyst as the closest US-listed businesses. Moves are over each window: for a peak or trough, the move that followed it. Driver is Company, Sector or Market; see Definitions below.
Every report on TLK
Each AI analyst report as it was published, with the share price that day and the move since (today $11.12). Past performance is not a guide to the future.
| Report | Price then | Since | What it said |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026Latest | $11.12 | +0.0% | Buyback speeds up at state-run telecom trading at 6.2× operating income · Catalyst: Moderate |
| Oct 29, 2026 | — | — | Accelerating buyback and NeutraDC sale give a cheap, state-controlled telecom a catalyst · Catalyst: High |
Liked this? Get a free story every week
Each week we email the free AI analyst stories, the cheapest stocks on the screens, and the podcast.
Definitions
- Acquirer's Multiple®
- Enterprise value ÷ operating income (trailing 12 months). What an acquirer would pay for the whole business against what it earns before interest and tax. Lower is cheaper.
- Enterprise value
- Market cap at today's price, plus debt, preferred stock and minority interests, less cash.
- Operating income
- Trailing 12 months, after depreciation and amortization.
- Operating earnings yield
- Operating income ÷ enterprise value: the Acquirer's Multiple turned upside down.
- Free cash flow yield
- Trailing 12-month free cash flow (cash from operations less capital spending) ÷ market cap.
- Shareholder yield
- Trailing 12-month dividends plus net buybacks (shares bought back less shares issued) ÷ market cap. Dividend yield and buyback yield are its two parts.
- Return on assets
- Trailing 12-month operating income ÷ total assets at the latest quarter.
- Net debt : market cap
- Debt less cash, as a share of market cap. Negative means net cash.
- E(r)
- Expected annual return if the Acquirer's Multiple doesn't change. It has three parts: return on assets (what the business earns on what it owns); incremental growth (return on assets × the reinvestment rate, where the reinvestment rate is five-year average capital spending ÷ five-year average total assets: what reinvested capital adds); and shareholder yield (what is paid out through dividends and buybacks). E(r) = return on assets × (1 + reinvestment rate) + shareholder yield.
- 10-year Treasury
- The latest monthly 10-year US Treasury yield, the risk-free rate the yields are compared with.
- Percentiles
- Where the stock sits among investable US stocks (price above $3, market cap above $75M, average daily trading above $850,000, no ADRs or MLPs), updated each week. Each is the percentile of the number itself: for the Acquirer's Multiple (here EBIT ÷ enterprise value) and debt (total debt ÷ book equity), lower is better; for yields, five-year average return on assets and market cap, higher is bigger. Stocks outside the investable set, such as ADRs, are placed against it.
- Industry and sector
- FactSet RBICS industry. Industry and sector medians are the middle investable stock's percentile. Industry history is that median each quarter since 1999; the usual range is the middle 80% of quarters.
- Turning points
- Inflection points are the peaks and troughs where the stock's trend reversed by about 25% or more on weekly closes; each is compared over the move that followed. Divergences are stretches where the stock pulled away from its sector fund or the S&P 500 by about 20% or more. Each is set against its peers' median, its sector fund and the S&P 500 over the same window. Driver: Market if the market moved with it (same way, at least half as far) and so did its peers or sector; Sector if only its peers or sector did; Company otherwise.
- Value-trap grades
- Return on assets: Strong at 10% or more, Mixed at 5% or more. Net debt : market cap: Strong at 30% or less, Mixed at 100% or less. Free cash flow yield: Strong at 10% or more, Mixed at 5% or more. Shareholder yield: Strong at 8% or more, Mixed at 3% or more.