Where SM sits among all investable US stocks
Cheapness against five-year return on assets, as percentiles. Upper left is cheaper with higher returns; larger dark dots are its industry (Fossil Fuel Exploration and Production).
SM is a cheap, high-return oil producer; buybacks are its only live catalyst, and $6.4B of net debt limits the margin of safety.
SM Energy produces oil, gas and NGLs in Colorado, New Mexico, Texas and Utah, and has gained 20.6% over five years against 29.7% for peers and 168.8% for the sector fund. The shares fell 12.7% on Wednesday, November 4, a day after third-quarter results trimmed oil guidance. Is this a bargain or a trap? At 6.8× operating income with high returns, it looks cheap, but debt is heavy and buybacks are the only live catalyst.
The commentary was written on November 4, 2026, from that day's figures. Since then: Acquirer's Multiple 6.8×, now 6.7×; FCF yield 9.9%, now 10.2%; operating earnings yield 14.7%, now 14.9%. The figures and charts show today's.
The last five years on the numbers
Where SM has ranked among investable US stocks each quarter since 2021. Hollow dot: five years ago; solid dot: the latest quarter. The share price over the same years is in the five-year record below.
Cheap and high quality: 7th percentile multiple, 89th percentile returns on assets.
6.8× EV to operating income, 6th cheapest of 50 in its industry (median 22nd percentile). Earnings yield 14.7% vs 4.9% Treasury; FCF yield 9.9% (75th percentile). Net debt $6.4B, 84.2% of market cap.
Against the market, its industry and sector
SM as a percentile of all 3,202 investable US stocks, against the 50 in Fossil Fuel Exploration and Production and the 157 in the Energy sector.
| Metric | SM | Position | In its industry | Industry median | Sector median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquirer's Multiple | 7th | #6 of 50 | 22nd | 35th | |
| Free cash flow yield | 75th | #16 of 50 | 60th | 59th | |
| Shareholder yield | 62nd | #23 of 50 | 62nd | 58th | |
| Dividend yield | 75th | #24 of 50 | 74th | 68th | |
| Return on assets, 5-yr avg | 89th | #23 of 50 | 87th | 70th | |
| Debt to book equity | 61st | #39 of 50 | 41st | 46th | |
| Market cap | 75th | #14 of 50 | 52nd | 58th |
Percentiles of the number itself. For the Acquirer's Multiple and debt to equity, lower is better: the 5th percentile on the multiple is cheaper than 95% of investable US stocks. Green is the better end, red the worse. Orange dot: SM; bar: industry median; diamond: sector median. Data as of 2026-10-31.
Over- or under-earning?
Earning about normallyReturn on assets ranks at the 76th percentile of investable US stocks, against a median of the 58th and a low of the 13th since 2017. That is close to its usual level, so today's multiple is about right on a normalized basis. If earnings normalize, the multiple would likely rise: from the 6th percentile today (cheaper than 94% of investable US stocks) to around the 62nd (dearer than 62% of investable US stocks), judging by where it sat in past quarters when returns were at their usual level. If returns fell to their low, it would be around the 86th (dearer than 86% of investable US stocks).
| Percentile | Today | Returns normal | Returns at low |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on assets (higher is better) | 76th | 58th (median) | 13th (low) |
| Acquirer's Multiple (lower is cheaper) | 6th | 62nd | 86th |
Percentiles among investable US stocks. Return on assets is operating income over total assets, trailing 12 months. The last two columns show where it sat in past quarters when returns were within 7.5 points of their median (5 quarters) and of their low (6). The past, not a forecast.
Price v Return
What the shares and assets earn, against the 10-year Treasury.
Its industry against its own history
Fossil Fuel Exploration and Production report →Industry Acquirer's Multiple: 21st percentile, cheaper than in 68% of quarters since 1999. Return on assets, 5-yr: 87th percentile, near its best. Free cash flow yield: 60th percentile, higher than in 83% of quarters. Cheap despite strong returns.
| Metric | Percentile now | Usual range | Against its history | Last 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquirer's Multiple | 21st | 10th–73rd | Usual range | |
| Free cash flow yield | 60th | 14th–68th | Higher than usual | |
| Shareholder yield | 61st | 32nd–73rd | Higher than usual | |
| Dividend yield | 74th | 24th–72nd | Near its highest | |
| Return on assets, 5-yr | 87th | 30th–71st | Near its best | |
| Debt to equity | 41st | 42nd–64th | Least debt on record | |
| Company size | 52nd | 50th–68th | Smaller than usual |
The industry's median stock as a percentile of all investable US stocks on each number. For the Acquirer's Multiple and debt to equity, lower is better: the 10th percentile is cheaper than 90% of the market. For yields, returns and size, higher is bigger. Usual range covers the middle 80% of quarters since 1999; it's the shaded band in each chart. Each chart is zoomed to its own range (the numbers on the left): green shading marks the metric's better side and red its worse side, the dashed line is the 50th percentile, and the dot is today, coloured by where it sits.
Buybacks are live; no activist or bid, but peers are being bought.
$323 million of the $500 million buyback remained at September 30; $165 million bought year to date. No activist or approach found. Devon–Coterra and Ovintiv–Logan show peers being acquired.
Catalyst check
Likelihood of a catalyst: ModerateA modest live buyback is the only active catalyst; no activist, bid or sale process was found.
Debt, a guidance cut and oil-driven earnings could make this a trap.
Return on assets is at the 76th percentile, near normal (median 58th, low 13th). When returns were normal the multiple sat at the 62nd percentile, against 6th today. Net debt is 84.2% of market cap.
Value-trap check
Grades miss how much earnings depend on the oil price and how recent the Civitas merger and guidance cut are.
Oil moves the shares; SM has also lagged on its own deals.
SM rose 20.6% over five years against peers 29.7%, Energy (XLE) 168.8%, S&P 500 76.9%. Most turning points were sector-led; the 2024–26 slide to January 2026 was the company's own.
Five years of moves
SM +20.6% since 2021-10-26, against the median of CHRD, CRGY, MGY, MTDR, PR +29.7%, Energy (XLE) +168.8% and the S&P 500 (SPY) +76.9%. Numbered dots mark inflections (peaks and troughs); shaded bands mark divergences from the sector or market.
What drove each turning point
| # | Turning point | SM | Peers | Sector | S&P 500 | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trough · also +119.8% vs market · 2021-12-17 → 2022-06-10 | +86.9% | +57.1% | +66.9% | −15.0% | Sector |
| Energy slumped on omicron and rate fears, WTI briefly under $70. The rally was sector-led: SM +86.9%, sector +66.9%, market −15.0%. nasdaq.com (1783 days ago); Bloomberg (1782 days ago) | ||||||
| 2 | Peak · 2022-06-10 → 2022-07-15 | −36.6% | −31.3% | −21.8% | −0.8% | Sector |
| Not among the most significant turning points; not researched. | ||||||
| 3 | Divergence vs market · 2022-10-07 → 2023-05-12 | −42.0% | −14.1% | −2.0% | +14.4% | Company |
| Not among the most significant turning points; not researched. | ||||||
| 4 | Peak · 2022-11-11 → 2023-03-17 | −45.6% | −26.2% | −16.5% | −1.3% | Sector |
| No news found; SM fell 45.6% into March 2023, peers −26.2%, sector −16.5%, market −1.3%. Sector-led, though SM fell further than peers. | ||||||
| 5 | Trough · 2023-03-17 → 2024-04-05 | +112.2% | +62.5% | +33.2% | +34.9% | Sector |
| WTI hit its lowest close since December 2021 on bank-failure fears. SM then rose 112.2% against peers +62.5% and sector +33.2%; sources give no company catalyst. dallasfed.org (1302 days ago); CNBC (1327 days ago) | ||||||
| 6 | Peak · 2024-04-05 → 2025-04-11 | −58.2% | −35.4% | −16.9% | +4.3% | Sector |
| SM fell 58.2%, peers −35.4%, sector −16.9%. Oil weakness (WTI low of $55.12) and SM's Uinta deal, share offering and takeaway issues all weighed. hartenergy.com (860 days ago); tipranks.com (167 days ago); Yahoo Finance (615 days ago); ogj.com (572 days ago) | ||||||
| 7 | Divergence vs market · 2024-04-05 → 2026-01-09 | −64.5% | −26.6% | +0.8% | +36.8% | Company |
| Company-driven: SM −64.5% against peers −26.6% and sector +0.8%. Items: Raymond James downgrade, falling oil, and the all-stock Civitas merger announced Nov 3, 2025, with leverage worries. Yahoo Finance (496 days ago); insidermonkey.com (387 days ago); novilabs.com (244 days ago); finimize.com (302 days ago) | ||||||
| 8 | Trough · 2026-01-09 → 2026-10-30 | +132.0% | +75.2% | +53.0% | +9.7% | Sector |
| Oil drove it: WTI up about 68% through September; SM +132.0%, sector +53.0%, peers +75.2%. Merger synergies and output also helped, though sources don't attribute the gap. chase.com (28 days ago); oilprice.com (35 days ago); SEC filing; sm-energy.com (1 days ago) | ||||||
| 9 | Divergence vs market · 2026-01-09 → 2026-03-27 | +85.6% | +56.1% | +34.9% | −8.4% | Sector |
| Not among the most significant turning points; not researched. | ||||||
Prices: daily closes. Peers chosen by the AI analyst as the closest US-listed businesses. Moves are over each window: for a peak or trough, the move that followed it. Driver is Company, Sector or Market; see Definitions below.
Every report on SM
Each AI analyst report as it was published, with the share price that day and the move since (today $31.09). Past performance is not a guide to the future.
| Report | Price then | Since | What it said |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026Latest | $31.97 | ▼ −2.8% | Buybacks run at a cheap oil producer that fell 12.7% after earnings · Catalyst: Moderate |
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Definitions
- Acquirer's Multiple®
- Enterprise value ÷ operating income (trailing 12 months). What an acquirer would pay for the whole business against what it earns before interest and tax. Lower is cheaper.
- Enterprise value
- Market cap at today's price, plus debt, preferred stock and minority interests, less cash.
- Operating income
- Trailing 12 months, after depreciation and amortization.
- Operating earnings yield
- Operating income ÷ enterprise value: the Acquirer's Multiple turned upside down.
- Free cash flow yield
- Trailing 12-month free cash flow (cash from operations less capital spending) ÷ market cap.
- Shareholder yield
- Trailing 12-month dividends plus net buybacks (shares bought back less shares issued) ÷ market cap. Dividend yield and buyback yield are its two parts.
- Return on assets
- Trailing 12-month operating income ÷ total assets at the latest quarter.
- Net debt : market cap
- Debt less cash, as a share of market cap. Negative means net cash.
- E(r)
- Expected annual return if the Acquirer's Multiple doesn't change. It has three parts: return on assets (what the business earns on what it owns); incremental growth (return on assets × the reinvestment rate, where the reinvestment rate is five-year average capital spending ÷ five-year average total assets: what reinvested capital adds); and shareholder yield (what is paid out through dividends and buybacks). E(r) = return on assets × (1 + reinvestment rate) + shareholder yield.
- 10-year Treasury
- The latest monthly 10-year US Treasury yield, the risk-free rate the yields are compared with.
- Percentiles
- Where the stock sits among investable US stocks (price above $3, market cap above $75M, average daily trading above $850,000, no ADRs or MLPs), updated each week. Each is the percentile of the number itself: for the Acquirer's Multiple (here EBIT ÷ enterprise value) and debt (total debt ÷ book equity), lower is better; for yields, five-year average return on assets and market cap, higher is bigger. Stocks outside the investable set, such as ADRs, are placed against it.
- Industry and sector
- FactSet RBICS industry. Industry and sector medians are the middle investable stock's percentile. Industry history is that median each quarter since 1999; the usual range is the middle 80% of quarters.
- Turning points
- Inflection points are the peaks and troughs where the stock's trend reversed by about 25% or more on weekly closes; each is compared over the move that followed. Divergences are stretches where the stock pulled away from its sector fund or the S&P 500 by about 20% or more. Each is set against its peers' median, its sector fund and the S&P 500 over the same window. Driver: Market if the market moved with it (same way, at least half as far) and so did its peers or sector; Sector if only its peers or sector did; Company otherwise.
- Value-trap grades
- Return on assets: Strong at 10% or more, Mixed at 5% or more. Net debt : market cap: Strong at 30% or less, Mixed at 100% or less. Free cash flow yield: Strong at 10% or more, Mixed at 5% or more. Shareholder yield: Strong at 8% or more, Mixed at 3% or more.