Where SFM sits among all investable US stocks
Cheapness against five-year return on assets, as percentiles. Upper left is cheaper with higher returns; larger dark dots are its industry (Food and Beverage Retail).
Sprouts is a cheap, high-return grocer whose own buyback is the only live catalyst, while falling traffic and guided lower earnings are the trap risk.
Sprouts runs 504 natural-food grocery stores in 25 states. The shares rose 115.8% over five years, beating peers (+22.0%), the sector (+44.4%) and the S&P 500 (+72.1%), but fell 45.4% from July 2 to November 6 as traffic weakened and guidance was cut. The question for a value investor is whether 10.3× operating income prices in the slowdown. The numbers say cheap on high returns, with the buyback the only live catalyst.
The last five years on the numbers
Where SFM has ranked among investable US stocks each quarter since 2021. Hollow dot: five years ago; solid dot: the latest quarter. The share price over the same years is in the five-year record below.
Cheap and high quality: low multiple, high returns on assets.
10.3×, 14th percentile of US stocks, cheapest of 12 in industry; return on assets 86th percentile, near its own norm. Earnings yield 9.7% vs 5.1% Treasury; free cash flow yield 6.9% (71st). Net debt $2.0B.
Against the market, its industry and sector
SFM as a percentile of all 3,189 investable US stocks, against the 12 in Food and Beverage Retail and the 167 in the Consumer Non-Cyclicals sector.
| Metric | SFM | Position | In its industry | Industry median | Sector median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquirer's Multiple | 14th | The cheapest of 12 | 30th | 36th | |
| Free cash flow yield | 71st | #5 of 12 | 64th | 56th | |
| Shareholder yield | 91st | #3 of 12 | 50th | 63rd | |
| Dividend yield | 26th | #7 of 12 | 42nd | 56th | |
| Return on assets, 5-yr avg | 86th | The highest of 12 | 63rd | 71st | |
| Debt to book equity | 74th | #7 of 12 | 74th | 60th | |
| Market cap | 61st | #4 of 12 | 46th | 53rd |
Percentiles of the number itself. For the Acquirer's Multiple and debt to equity, lower is better: the 5th percentile on the multiple is cheaper than 95% of investable US stocks. Green is the better end, red the worse. Orange dot: SFM; bar: industry median; diamond: sector median. Data as of 2026-11-07.
Over- or under-earning?
Earning about normallyReturn on assets ranks at the 88th percentile of investable US stocks, against a median of the 85th and a low of the 73rd since 2017. That is close to its usual level, so today's multiple is about right on a normalized basis. If earnings normalize, the multiple would likely rise: from the 19th percentile today (cheaper than 81% of investable US stocks) to around the 26th (cheaper than 74% of investable US stocks), judging by where it sat in past quarters when returns were at their usual level. If returns fell to their low, it would be around the 32nd (cheaper than 68% of investable US stocks).
| Percentile | Today | Returns normal | Returns at low |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on assets (higher is better) | 88th | 85th (median) | 73rd (low) |
| Acquirer's Multiple (lower is cheaper) | 19th | 26th | 32nd |
Percentiles among investable US stocks. Return on assets is operating income over total assets, trailing 12 months. The last two columns show where it sat in past quarters when returns were within 7.5 points of their median (31 quarters) and of their low (14). The past, not a forecast.
Price v Return
What the shares and assets earn, against the 10-year Treasury.
Its industry against its own history
Food and Beverage Retail report →Industry multiple: 31st percentile, cheaper than in 61% of quarters (usual range). Return on assets: 63rd percentile, usual range. Free cash flow yield: 63rd percentile, higher than in 91% of quarters. Debt: most on record. Sprouts is cheaper still.
| Metric | Percentile now | Usual range | Against its history | Last 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquirer's Multiple | 31st | 22nd–47th | Usual range | |
| Free cash flow yield | 63rd | 39th–62nd | Near its highest | |
| Shareholder yield | 49th | 45th–67th | Lower than usual | |
| Dividend yield | 42nd | 28th–66th | Usual range | |
| Return on assets, 5-yr | 63rd | 52nd–71st | Usual range | |
| Debt to equity | 73rd | 49th–73rd | Most debt on record | |
| Company size | 47th | 35th–62nd | Usual range |
The industry's median stock as a percentile of all investable US stocks on each number. For the Acquirer's Multiple and debt to equity, lower is better: the 10th percentile is cheaper than 90% of the market. For yields, returns and size, higher is bigger. Usual range covers the middle 80% of quarters since 1999; it's the shaded band in each chart. Each chart is zoomed to its own range (the numbers on the left): green shading marks the metric's better side and red its worse side, the dashed line is the 50th percentile, and the dot is today, coloured by where it sits.
A live buyback is the catalyst; no activist or bidder is visible.
$537 million remains on a $1 billion authorization; the buyback yield is 8.8%. Burry says he holds about 3%, but no activist filing or takeover approach turned up. Nick Konat becomes CEO Jan. 4, 2027.
Catalyst check
Likelihood of a catalyst: ModerateA buyback is live, but research found no activist campaign, bid or sale process.
Earnings are slipping, and net debt leaves less room for error.
Guided EBIT of about $605 million is below trailing operating income of $668M; traffic is not recovering. At normal returns the multiple would rise from the 19th to the 26th percentile. Net debt is 41.3% of market cap.
Value-trap check
Grades can't see that guided EBIT of about $605 million is below trailing operating income, or that traffic is still falling.
The swings were the company's own, not its sector's.
Shares gained 115.8% in five years versus peers +22.0%, sector +44.4%, S&P 500 +72.1%. Company news drove the 653.4% rise to 2025 and the 62.0% fall; the latest slide, 45.4% to Nov. 6, was too.
Five years of moves
SFM +115.8% since 2021-11-05, against the median of ACI, GO, KR, NGVC +22.0%, Consumer Staples (XLP) +44.4% and the S&P 500 (SPY) +72.1%. Numbered dots mark inflections (peaks and troughs); shaded bands mark divergences from the sector or market.
What drove each turning point
| # | Turning point | SFM | Peers | Sector | S&P 500 | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Divergence vs market · 2021-11-05 → 2022-03-04 | +39.3% | +33.1% | +4.6% | −7.4% | Sector |
| Not among the most significant turning points; not researched. | ||||||
| 2 | Peak · 2022-04-08 → 2022-05-20 | −32.3% | −21.2% | −10.2% | −12.9% | Sector |
| Not among the most significant turning points; not researched. | ||||||
| 3 | Divergence vs sector · 2022-05-06 → 2025-02-14 | +639.5% | +13.8% | +13.3% | +54.4% | Company |
| Company-driven: comparable sales rose 11.5% in Q4 2024 and gross margin was 38.1%, up 150 basis points, while peers gained a median 13.8%. Business Wire (632 days ago); s206.q4cdn.com (632 days ago) | ||||||
| 4 | Trough · 2022-05-20 → 2025-02-14 | +653.4% | +25.1% | +22.9% | +63.0% | Company |
| Company caution (flat Q2 comps guided) and a market rout (S&P 500 down 4% on May 18) hit the shares; the rebound that followed was company-driven. GlobeNewswire (1655 days ago); wtvy.com (1641 days ago) | ||||||
| 5 | Peak · 2025-02-14 → 2026-02-06 | −62.0% | −25.0% | +12.1% | +14.6% | Company |
| Shares hit a 52-week high of $178.46, up 27.2% in a month; Q4 results then beat and 2025 guidance was raised. A company-driven peak. Yahoo Finance (635 days ago); Investing.com (632 days ago) | ||||||
| 6 | Divergence vs market · 2025-05-02 → 2026-02-06 | −61.3% | −27.2% | +10.2% | +22.9% | Company |
| Company-driven: Q3 2025 comps slowed to 5.9% from 10.2% in Q2 and 11.7% in Q1, and the stock fell 25% on October 20, 2025. tradingview.com (362 days ago); grocerydive.com (262 days ago) | ||||||
| 7 | Trough · 2026-02-06 → 2026-07-02 | +33.6% | −4.8% | −2.1% | +8.4% | Company |
| No event found for February 6 itself. Analysts cut targets (Evercore to $83 from $130). The rebound was company-driven: shares rose 33.6% as peers fell 4.8%. gurufocus.com (267 days ago) | ||||||
| 8 | Peak · also −48.8% vs sector · 2026-07-02 → 2026-11-06 | −45.4% | +5.1% | +6.7% | −1.0% | Company |
| A cyclospora outbreak, a Q3 miss and cut guidance (comps now -1.7%) drove a one-day drop of about 22.5%. Company-specific; peers rose 5.1%. Bloomberg (16 days ago); stockstotrade.com (12 days ago); Investing.com (16 days ago) | ||||||
Prices: daily closes. Peers chosen by the AI analyst as the closest US-listed businesses. Moves are over each window: for a peak or trough, the move that followed it. Driver is Company, Sector or Market; see Definitions below.
Every report on SFM
Each AI analyst report as it was published, with the share price that day and the move since (today $52.07). Past performance is not a guide to the future.
| Report | Price then | Since | What it said |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2026Latest | $52.07 | +0.0% | Sprouts buys back shares at 10.3× operating income after a 45% slide · Catalyst: Moderate |
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Definitions
- Acquirer's Multiple®
- Enterprise value ÷ operating income (trailing 12 months). What an acquirer would pay for the whole business against what it earns before interest and tax. Lower is cheaper.
- Enterprise value
- Market cap at today's price, plus debt, preferred stock and minority interests, less cash.
- Operating income
- Trailing 12 months, after depreciation and amortization.
- Operating earnings yield
- Operating income ÷ enterprise value: the Acquirer's Multiple turned upside down.
- Free cash flow yield
- Trailing 12-month free cash flow (cash from operations less capital spending) ÷ market cap.
- Shareholder yield
- Trailing 12-month dividends plus net buybacks (shares bought back less shares issued) ÷ market cap. Dividend yield and buyback yield are its two parts.
- Return on assets
- Trailing 12-month operating income ÷ total assets at the latest quarter.
- Net debt : market cap
- Debt less cash, as a share of market cap. Negative means net cash.
- E(r)
- Expected annual return if the Acquirer's Multiple doesn't change. It has three parts: return on assets (what the business earns on what it owns); incremental growth (return on assets × the reinvestment rate, where the reinvestment rate is five-year average capital spending ÷ five-year average total assets: what reinvested capital adds); and shareholder yield (what is paid out through dividends and buybacks). E(r) = return on assets × (1 + reinvestment rate) + shareholder yield.
- 10-year Treasury
- The latest monthly 10-year US Treasury yield, the risk-free rate the yields are compared with.
- Percentiles
- Where the stock sits among investable US stocks (price above $3, market cap above $75M, average daily trading above $850,000, no ADRs or MLPs), updated each week. Each is the percentile of the number itself: for the Acquirer's Multiple (here EBIT ÷ enterprise value) and debt (total debt ÷ book equity), lower is better; for yields, five-year average return on assets and market cap, higher is bigger. Stocks outside the investable set, such as ADRs, are placed against it.
- Industry and sector
- FactSet RBICS industry. Industry and sector medians are the middle investable stock's percentile. Industry history is that median each quarter since 1999; the usual range is the middle 80% of quarters.
- Turning points
- Inflection points are the peaks and troughs where the stock's trend reversed by about 25% or more on weekly closes; each is compared over the move that followed. Divergences are stretches where the stock pulled away from its sector fund or the S&P 500 by about 20% or more. Each is set against its peers' median, its sector fund and the S&P 500 over the same window. Driver: Market if the market moved with it (same way, at least half as far) and so did its peers or sector; Sector if only its peers or sector did; Company otherwise.
- Value-trap grades
- Return on assets: Strong at 10% or more, Mixed at 5% or more. Net debt : market cap: Strong at 30% or less, Mixed at 100% or less. Free cash flow yield: Strong at 10% or more, Mixed at 5% or more. Shareholder yield: Strong at 8% or more, Mixed at 3% or more.