Martinrea is a cheap auto supplier with live buyback and asset-sale catalysts, held back by debt, tariff exposure and earnings that look high.
Martinrea makes lightweight structures and propulsion systems for automakers, and its shares are down 9.3% over five years against peers down 11.2% and the S&P 500 up 73.4%. They rose 13.4% on Friday, November 13, after third-quarter results, European restructuring plans and about $107M of asset sales. The question for a value investor is whether 3.2× is real or flattered. The numbers say cheap, with buybacks live, but debt and tariffs keep the value-trap risk open.
The last five years on the numbers
Where MRE.TO has ranked among investable US stocks each quarter since 2021. Hollow dot: five years ago; solid dot: the latest quarter. The share price over the same years is in the five-year record below.
Metric history isn't available for this stock.
Very cheap on the numbers, but the earnings base may be flattering.
3.2× EV to operating income; earnings yield 30.9% against a 5.1% Treasury; return on assets 38.9%; free cash flow yield 32.7%; net debt C$1.0B. Low multiple, high returns: cheap quality on its face.
Price v Return
What the shares and assets earn, against the 10-year Treasury.
Its industry against its own history
Consumer Vehicles and Parts report →Industry multiple: 36th percentile, dearer than usual (cheaper than in 24% of quarters). Return on assets, 5-yr: 61st percentile; free cash flow yield: 52nd percentile; both usual. Comparison is with US peers.
| Metric | Percentile now | Usual range | Against its history | Last 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquirer's Multiple | 36th | 12th–45th | Dearer than usual | |
| Free cash flow yield | 52nd | 41st–75th | Usual range | |
| Shareholder yield | 71st | 46th–73rd | Higher than usual | |
| Dividend yield | 61st | 28th–78th | Usual range | |
| Return on assets, 5-yr | 61st | 43rd–76th | Usual range | |
| Debt to equity | 62nd | 48th–67th | More debt than usual | |
| Company size | 51st | 42nd–62nd | Usual range |
The industry's median stock as a percentile of all investable US stocks on each number. For the Acquirer's Multiple and debt to equity, lower is better: the 10th percentile is cheaper than 90% of the market. For yields, returns and size, higher is bigger. Usual range covers the middle 80% of quarters since 1999; it's the shaded band in each chart. Each chart is zoomed to its own range (the numbers on the left): green shading marks the metric's better side and red its worse side, the dashed line is the 50th percentile, and the dot is today, coloured by where it sits. MRE.TO is not US-listed; the comparison is with its US peers.
Buybacks and asset sales are live; a takeover looks unlikely.
The issuer bid covers about 10% of the float, and 941,000 shares were bought last quarter. About $107M of asset sales goes to debt. No activist found. The chairman calls a sale unlikely.
Catalyst check
Likelihood of a catalyst: HighA live buyback and about $107M of asset sales are active; no activist or bid, and the chairman calls a takeover unlikely.
Debt, tariffs and trailing earnings that look too high are the risks.
Net debt is 133.9% of market cap. Guidance of 5.5% to 6% adjusted operating margin sits oddly against C$561M trailing operating income. Illustrative: 20% lower operating income gives C$5.60. Europe is weak.
Value-trap check
Grades may miss that trailing operating income and the 20.1% dividend yield look far above guidance and the recent quarterly dividend.
The swings were the sector's tariff cycle and the company's own results.
Down 9.3% over five years, peers down 11.2%, S&P 500 up 73.4%. The early recoveries were company-driven; the long slide and later rebound tracked the sector. The latest 22.7% drop was company-driven, unresearched.
Five years of moves
MRE.TO −9.3% since 2021-11-04, against the median of CPS, DAN, MGA −11.2%, its sector fund — and the S&P 500 (SPY) +73.4%. Numbered dots mark inflections (peaks and troughs); shaded bands mark divergences from the sector or market.
What drove each turning point
| # | Turning point | MRE.TO | Peers | Sector | S&P 500 | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Divergence vs market · 2022-04-14 → 2023-03-03 | +95.1% | +7.2% | — | −6.5% | Company |
| Company-driven: shares rose 95.1% against peers' 7.2% as chip-related shutdowns eased. Adjusted EBITDA rose 77.8% sequentially in the first quarter, and sales kept growing. GlobeNewswire (1653 days ago); GlobeNewswire (1473 days ago); GlobeNewswire (1352 days ago) | ||||||
| 2 | Trough · 2022-04-29 → 2022-08-19 | +50.1% | +14.5% | — | +2.9% | Company |
| Company-driven: a chip-shortage loss, the Ukraine war and the Ambassador Bridge shutdown fed the slide. Improved results followed; shares rose 50.1% against peers' 14.5%. canadianmanufacturing.com (1715 days ago); autonews.com (1715 days ago); GlobeNewswire (1653 days ago) | ||||||
| 3 | Trough · 2022-10-14 → 2023-03-03 | +82.9% | +36.1% | — | +13.5% | Company |
| Company-driven: nothing found for the low itself. Results improved and sales rose 22.9% in the fourth quarter; shares rose 82.9% against peers' 36.1%. GlobeNewswire (1473 days ago); GlobeNewswire (1352 days ago) | ||||||
| 4 | Peak · also −28.5% vs market · 2023-03-03 → 2023-06-02 | −24.0% | −14.2% | — | +6.3% | Sector |
| Sector-driven: peers fell 14.2% while the market rose 6.3%. No single cause found; first-quarter EPS missed consensus and Europe's recovery was uneven. MarketBeat | ||||||
| 5 | Peak · also −63.1% vs market · 2023-08-04 → 2025-04-11 | −54.8% | −43.2% | — | +22.3% | Sector |
| Sector-driven: peers fell 43.2%, market rose 22.3%. A UAW strike cost about $50 million of sales, EV volumes lagged, impairments hit and tariffs pushed shares to multi-year lows. martinrea.com (988 days ago); autonews.com (987 days ago); marketscreener.com (616 days ago); claimsjournal.com (610 days ago) | ||||||
| 6 | Trough · also +41.1% vs market · 2025-04-11 → 2025-09-12 | +74.3% | +97.4% | — | +23.5% | Sector |
| Sector-driven: a tariff pause lifted Magna 7.5%, Linamar 8.9% and Martinrea 5.6%. Peers rose 97.4% against its 74.3%; USMCA-compliant parts are exempt from auto tariffs. ca.marketscreener.com; Investing.com (458 days ago) | ||||||
| 7 | Peak · 2025-09-12 → 2026-03-20 | −22.7% | +14.5% | — | −0.5% | Company |
| Not among the most significant turning points; not researched. | ||||||
Prices: daily closes. Peers chosen by the AI analyst as the closest US-listed businesses. Moves are over each window: for a peak or trough, the move that followed it. Driver is Company, Sector or Market; see Definitions below.
Every report on MRE.TO
Each AI analyst report as it was published, with the share price that day and the move since (today C$10.95). Past performance is not a guide to the future.
| Report | Price then | Since | What it said |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2026Latest | C$10.95 | +0.0% | Martinrea buys back shares and sells assets while trading at 3.2× operating income · Catalyst: High |
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Definitions
- Acquirer's Multiple®
- Enterprise value ÷ operating income (trailing 12 months). What an acquirer would pay for the whole business against what it earns before interest and tax. Lower is cheaper.
- Enterprise value
- Market cap at today's price, plus debt, preferred stock and minority interests, less cash.
- Operating income
- Trailing 12 months, after depreciation and amortization.
- Operating earnings yield
- Operating income ÷ enterprise value: the Acquirer's Multiple turned upside down.
- Free cash flow yield
- Trailing 12-month free cash flow (cash from operations less capital spending) ÷ market cap.
- Shareholder yield
- Trailing 12-month dividends plus net buybacks (shares bought back less shares issued) ÷ market cap. Dividend yield and buyback yield are its two parts.
- Return on assets
- Trailing 12-month operating income ÷ total assets at the latest quarter.
- Net debt : market cap
- Debt less cash, as a share of market cap. Negative means net cash.
- E(r)
- Expected annual return if the Acquirer's Multiple doesn't change. It has three parts: return on assets (what the business earns on what it owns); incremental growth (return on assets × the reinvestment rate, where the reinvestment rate is five-year average capital spending ÷ five-year average total assets: what reinvested capital adds); and shareholder yield (what is paid out through dividends and buybacks). E(r) = return on assets × (1 + reinvestment rate) + shareholder yield.
- 10-year Treasury
- The latest monthly 10-year US Treasury yield, the risk-free rate the yields are compared with.
- Percentiles
- Where the stock sits among investable US stocks (price above $3, market cap above $75M, average daily trading above $850,000, no ADRs or MLPs), updated each week. Each is the percentile of the number itself: for the Acquirer's Multiple (here EBIT ÷ enterprise value) and debt (total debt ÷ book equity), lower is better; for yields, five-year average return on assets and market cap, higher is bigger. Stocks outside the investable set, such as ADRs, are placed against it.
- Industry and sector
- FactSet RBICS industry. Industry and sector medians are the middle investable stock's percentile. Industry history is that median each quarter since 1999; the usual range is the middle 80% of quarters.
- Turning points
- Inflection points are the peaks and troughs where the stock's trend reversed by about 25% or more on weekly closes; each is compared over the move that followed. Divergences are stretches where the stock pulled away from its sector fund or the S&P 500 by about 20% or more. Each is set against its peers' median, its sector fund and the S&P 500 over the same window. Driver: Market if the market moved with it (same way, at least half as far) and so did its peers or sector; Sector if only its peers or sector did; Company otherwise.
- Value-trap grades
- Return on assets: Strong at 10% or more, Mixed at 5% or more. Net debt : market cap: Strong at 30% or less, Mixed at 100% or less. Free cash flow yield: Strong at 10% or more, Mixed at 5% or more. Shareholder yield: Strong at 8% or more, Mixed at 3% or more.