Where CTVA sits among all investable US stocks
Cheapness against five-year return on assets, as percentiles. Upper left is cheaper with higher returns; larger dark dots are its industry (Specialty and Performance Chemicals).
Corteva looks very cheap on reported numbers, and buybacks are the live catalyst, but a spin-off and a guidance cut make the earnings base uncertain.
Corteva is now a pure-play crop protection company after spinning off its seed business on October 1, 2026, and its shares gained 90.4% in five years against peers' median −5.0%. On Thursday, November 12, 2026, they fell 18.7% after a Q3 miss and a guidance cut on weak Brazil demand. Is the stock a bargain or a trap? It screens as one of the cheapest US stocks, with buybacks as the live catalyst, but the earnings base is uncertain.
The commentary was written on November 12, 2026, from that day's figures. Since then: Acquirer's Multiple 3.1×, now 2.9×; FCF yield 9.5%, now 10.2%; operating earnings yield 32.6%, now 34.3%; buyback yield 15.2%, now 16.3%; implied price if operating income falls 20% $7.13, now $6.60. The figures and charts show today's.
The last five years on the numbers
Where CTVA has ranked among investable US stocks each quarter since 2021. Hollow dot: five years ago; solid dot: the latest quarter. The share price over the same years is in the five-year record below.
Cheap, with average returns, but the earnings base may predate the spin.
3.1× EV to operating income, 1st percentile of US stocks; return on assets at the 59th. Earnings yield 32.6% against 5.0% Treasury; free cash flow yield 9.5% (74th); net debt $2.5B. Normalized, it nears the 44th percentile.
Against the market, its industry and sector
CTVA as a percentile of all 3,189 investable US stocks, against the 53 in Specialty and Performance Chemicals and the 242 in the Non-Energy Materials sector.
| Metric | CTVA | Position | In its industry | Industry median | Sector median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquirer's Multiple | 1st | The cheapest of 53 | 47th | 42nd | |
| Free cash flow yield | 74th | #10 of 53 | 49th | 44th | |
| Shareholder yield | 98th | The highest of 53 | 56th | 47th | |
| Dividend yield | 95th | The highest of 53 | 70th | 56th | |
| Return on assets, 5-yr avg | 59th | #31 of 53 | 65th | 63rd | |
| Debt to book equity | 27th | #10 of 53 | 47th | 45th | |
| Market cap | 72nd | #14 of 53 | 58th | 52nd |
Percentiles of the number itself. For the Acquirer's Multiple and debt to equity, lower is better: the 5th percentile on the multiple is cheaper than 95% of investable US stocks. Green is the better end, red the worse. Orange dot: CTVA; bar: industry median; diamond: sector median. Data as of 2026-11-07.
Over- or under-earning?
Earning about normallyReturn on assets ranks at the 54th percentile of investable US stocks, against a median of the 55th and a low of the 2nd since 2019. That is close to its usual level, so today's multiple is about right on a normalized basis. If earnings normalize, the multiple would likely rise: from the 1st percentile today (cheaper than 99% of investable US stocks) to around the 44th (cheaper than 56% of investable US stocks), judging by where it sat in past quarters when returns were at their usual level.
| Percentile | Today | Returns normal | Returns at low |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on assets (higher is better) | 54th | 55th (median) | 2nd (low) |
| Acquirer's Multiple (lower is cheaper) | 1st | 44th | n/a |
Percentiles among investable US stocks. Return on assets is operating income over total assets, trailing 12 months. The last two columns show where it sat in past quarters when returns were within 7.5 points of their median (16 quarters) and of their low (1). The past, not a forecast.
Price v Return
What the shares and assets earn, against the 10-year Treasury.
Its industry against its own history
Specialty and Performance Chemicals report →Industry's Acquirer's Multiple is the 44th percentile, cheaper than in 10% of quarters since 1999 (near its dearest), with return on assets at the 65th percentile. Free cash flow yield, 49th percentile, is lower than usual. The stock stands out.
| Metric | Percentile now | Usual range | Against its history | Last 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquirer's Multiple | 44th | 29th–44th | Near its dearest | |
| Free cash flow yield | 49th | 48th–69th | Lower than usual | |
| Shareholder yield | 57th | 53rd–75th | Usual range | |
| Dividend yield | 71st | 58th–80th | Higher than usual | |
| Return on assets, 5-yr | 65th | 53rd–76th | Usual range | |
| Debt to equity | 47th | 48th–69th | Least debt on record | |
| Company size | 60th | 52nd–61st | Larger than usual |
The industry's median stock as a percentile of all investable US stocks on each number. For the Acquirer's Multiple and debt to equity, lower is better: the 10th percentile is cheaper than 90% of the market. For yields, returns and size, higher is bigger. Usual range covers the middle 80% of quarters since 1999; it's the shaded band in each chart. Each chart is zoomed to its own range (the numbers on the left): green shading marks the metric's better side and red its worse side, the dashed line is the 50th percentile, and the dot is today, coloured by where it sits.
Buybacks are live; no activist or bidder has appeared.
A $3B program with no expiry is in use; management targets about $1 billion a year, and a new $3B authorization is planned for Q4. Buyback yield: 15.2%. Activism and takeover: nothing found.
Catalyst check
Likelihood of a catalyst: HighBuybacks are the live catalyst: about $1 billion a year targeted and a new $3B authorization planned; no activist or bidder found.
The risk is a trap: earnings may be pre-spin and falling.
The $3.0B may include pre-spin earnings; guidance is now $1.1 to $1.125 billion operating EBITDA. Latin America organic sales fell 31%. Net debt is 37.9% of market cap. Illustratively, a 20% drop in operating income gives $7.13.
Value-trap check
The grades can't see that the trailing numbers may predate the October 1 spin-off and the guidance cut.
Sector cycles drove 2022–2023; Corteva's own results drove the climb since.
Up 90.4% in five years against peers' −5.0%, XLB's +34.3% and SPY's +74.8%. Destocking hurt the whole group in 2023; company results drove 2023–2025. The period ends before November 12's drop.
Five years of moves
CTVA +90.4% since 2021-11-03, against the median of CF, FMC, MOS, NTR −5.0%, Materials (XLB) +34.3% and the S&P 500 (SPY) +74.8%. Numbered dots mark inflections (peaks and troughs); shaded bands mark divergences from the sector or market.
What drove each turning point
| # | Turning point | CTVA | Peers | Sector | S&P 500 | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Divergence vs market · 2021-12-23 → 2022-11-04 | +41.9% | +21.5% | −13.2% | −19.1% | Sector |
| Farm stocks surged after Russia invaded Ukraine; peers rose 21.5% too. Corteva also beat estimates and raised 2022 guidance, while the sector fell 13.2%. farmprogress.com (1401 days ago); The Globe and Mail (1708 days ago); money.usnews.com (1652 days ago); SEC filing | ||||||
| 2 | Trough · 2022-01-21 → 2022-12-02 | +49.6% | +25.9% | +1.3% | −6.0% | Sector |
| No event found at the low itself. The rebound tracked the farm-stock surge after Russia's invasion of Ukraine; peers rose 25.9%, the sector 1.3%. The Globe and Mail (1708 days ago) | ||||||
| 3 | Divergence vs market · 2022-11-04 → 2024-01-26 | −28.9% | −30.2% | +12.4% | +32.1% | Sector |
| Crop-chemical destocking, mainly in Brazil, hit the group; Corteva cut 2023 guidance on October 27, 2023. Peers fell 30.2% too while the sector rose 12.4%. SEC filing; morningstar.com (1108 days ago) | ||||||
| 4 | Peak · 2022-12-02 → 2023-11-10 | −34.8% | −30.4% | −5.7% | +10.0% | Sector |
| No news found for the peak itself; Q3 2022 results had raised guidance a month earlier. The slide that followed matched peers (−30.4%) and the destocking cycle. investors.corteva.com (1469 days ago); morningstar.com (1108 days ago) | ||||||
| 5 | Trough · 2023-11-10 → 2026-07-24 | +111.1% | +7.0% | +39.7% | +73.5% | Company |
| After the guidance-cut low, Corteva guided 2024 higher and raised guidance in August and November 2025. It beat peers (+7.0%), sector (+39.7%) and market (+73.5%). SEC filing; PR Newswire (1015 days ago); Investing.com (462 days ago); SEC filing | ||||||
| 6 | Divergence vs sector · 2023-12-15 → 2025-06-20 | +61.0% | +11.1% | +4.5% | +29.0% | Company |
| Q4 2024 volume rose 17%, notably Brazil, and 2025 guidance held; a 52-week high followed in June 2025. Peers lagged: FMC fell 33% on February 5, 2025. SEC filing; SEC filing; MarketBeat; PR Newswire (639 days ago) | ||||||
| 7 | Divergence vs market · 2025-10-31 → 2026-04-02 | +39.8% | +29.5% | +18.8% | −3.3% | Sector |
| Not among the most significant turning points; not researched. | ||||||
Prices: daily closes. Peers chosen by the AI analyst as the closest US-listed businesses. Moves are over each window: for a peak or trough, the move that followed it. Driver is Company, Sector or Market; see Definitions below.
Every report on CTVA
Each AI analyst report as it was published, with the share price that day and the move since (today $9.19). Past performance is not a guide to the future.
| Report | Price then | Since | What it said |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2026Latest | $9.86 | ▼ −6.8% | Buybacks are live at Corteva, 3.1× operating income, after an 18.7% guidance-cut drop · Catalyst: High |
| Nov 3, 2026 | $11.81 | ▼ −22.2% | Buyback catalyst stalled by PFAS suit at crop-protection pure play on 3.5× operating income · Catalyst: Moderate |
| Oct 29, 2026 | — | — | Corteva's buyback shrinks the share count at 3.4× operating income after spin-off · Catalyst: High |
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Definitions
- Acquirer's Multiple®
- Enterprise value ÷ operating income (trailing 12 months). What an acquirer would pay for the whole business against what it earns before interest and tax. Lower is cheaper.
- Enterprise value
- Market cap at today's price, plus debt, preferred stock and minority interests, less cash.
- Operating income
- Trailing 12 months, after depreciation and amortization.
- Operating earnings yield
- Operating income ÷ enterprise value: the Acquirer's Multiple turned upside down.
- Free cash flow yield
- Trailing 12-month free cash flow (cash from operations less capital spending) ÷ market cap.
- Shareholder yield
- Trailing 12-month dividends plus net buybacks (shares bought back less shares issued) ÷ market cap. Dividend yield and buyback yield are its two parts.
- Return on assets
- Trailing 12-month operating income ÷ total assets at the latest quarter.
- Net debt : market cap
- Debt less cash, as a share of market cap. Negative means net cash.
- E(r)
- Expected annual return if the Acquirer's Multiple doesn't change. It has three parts: return on assets (what the business earns on what it owns); incremental growth (return on assets × the reinvestment rate, where the reinvestment rate is five-year average capital spending ÷ five-year average total assets: what reinvested capital adds); and shareholder yield (what is paid out through dividends and buybacks). E(r) = return on assets × (1 + reinvestment rate) + shareholder yield.
- 10-year Treasury
- The latest monthly 10-year US Treasury yield, the risk-free rate the yields are compared with.
- Percentiles
- Where the stock sits among investable US stocks (price above $3, market cap above $75M, average daily trading above $850,000, no ADRs or MLPs), updated each week. Each is the percentile of the number itself: for the Acquirer's Multiple (here EBIT ÷ enterprise value) and debt (total debt ÷ book equity), lower is better; for yields, five-year average return on assets and market cap, higher is bigger. Stocks outside the investable set, such as ADRs, are placed against it.
- Industry and sector
- FactSet RBICS industry. Industry and sector medians are the middle investable stock's percentile. Industry history is that median each quarter since 1999; the usual range is the middle 80% of quarters.
- Turning points
- Inflection points are the peaks and troughs where the stock's trend reversed by about 25% or more on weekly closes; each is compared over the move that followed. Divergences are stretches where the stock pulled away from its sector fund or the S&P 500 by about 20% or more. Each is set against its peers' median, its sector fund and the S&P 500 over the same window. Driver: Market if the market moved with it (same way, at least half as far) and so did its peers or sector; Sector if only its peers or sector did; Company otherwise.
- Value-trap grades
- Return on assets: Strong at 10% or more, Mixed at 5% or more. Net debt : market cap: Strong at 30% or less, Mixed at 100% or less. Free cash flow yield: Strong at 10% or more, Mixed at 5% or more. Shareholder yield: Strong at 8% or more, Mixed at 3% or more.