Where BKE sits among all investable US stocks
Cheapness against five-year return on assets, as percentiles. Upper left is cheaper with higher returns; larger dark dots are its industry (Apparel and Accessories Retail).
Buckle is a cheap, high-return denim retailer whose big dividends pay holders to wait, but no buyback, activist or bid is present to close the gap.
Buckle sells denim and casual apparel through 447 stores in 42 states, and its shares are up 84.8% over five years, well ahead of peers (+32.6%) and the sector fund (+23.9%). The shares rose 4.1% on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, with no news found to explain it. Comparable sales growth has cooled to +0.5% in September. Is this a bargain or a trap? The numbers say bargain, but without a buyback, activist or bidder, dividends do the work.
The commentary was written on November 4, 2026, from that day's figures. Since then: shareholder yield 9.2%, now 9.1%; dividend yield 9.2%, now 9.1%; implied price if operating income falls 20% $37.97, now $38.07. The figures and charts show today's.
The last five years on the numbers
Where BKE has ranked among investable US stocks each quarter since 2021. Hollow dot: five years ago; solid dot: the latest quarter. The share price over the same years is in the five-year record below.
Cheap and high quality: low multiple, very high returns on assets.
8.8× operating income, 8th percentile of US stocks (industry median 26th), return on assets 99th percentile. Earnings yield 11.4% vs 4.9% Treasury; FCF yield 7.8%; net debt $134M.
Against the market, its industry and sector
BKE as a percentile of all 3,202 investable US stocks, against the 20 in Apparel and Accessories Retail and the 190 in the Consumer Cyclicals sector.
| Metric | BKE | Position | In its industry | Industry median | Sector median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquirer's Multiple | 8th | #4 of 20 | 26th | 34th | |
| Free cash flow yield | 77th | #12 of 20 | 82nd | 68th | |
| Shareholder yield | 61st | #12 of 20 | 63rd | 62nd | |
| Dividend yield | 84th | #2 of 20 | 26th | 39th | |
| Return on assets, 5-yr avg | 99th | #2 of 20 | 77th | 74th | |
| Debt to book equity | 59th | #10 of 20 | 61st | 63rd | |
| Market cap | 47th | #10 of 20 | 43rd | 50th |
Percentiles of the number itself. For the Acquirer's Multiple and debt to equity, lower is better: the 5th percentile on the multiple is cheaper than 95% of investable US stocks. Green is the better end, red the worse. Orange dot: BKE; bar: industry median; diamond: sector median. Data as of 2026-10-31.
Over- or under-earning?
Earning about normallyReturn on assets ranks at the 96th percentile of investable US stocks, against a median of the 97th and a low of the 89th since 2017. That is close to its usual level, so today's multiple is about right on a normalized basis. If earnings normalize, the multiple would likely stay about where it is: from the 8th percentile today (cheaper than 92% of investable US stocks), around the 6th, judging by where it sat in past quarters when returns were at their usual level. If returns fell to their low, it would be around the 3rd (cheaper than 97% of investable US stocks).
| Percentile | Today | Returns normal | Returns at low |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on assets (higher is better) | 96th | 97th (median) | 89th (low) |
| Acquirer's Multiple (lower is cheaper) | 8th | 6th | 3rd |
Percentiles among investable US stocks. Return on assets is operating income over total assets, trailing 12 months. The last two columns show where it sat in past quarters when returns were within 7.5 points of their median (38 quarters) and of their low (17). The past, not a forecast.
Price v Return
What the shares and assets earn, against the 10-year Treasury.
Its industry against its own history
Apparel and Accessories Retail report →Industry Acquirer's Multiple: 23rd percentile, cheaper than in 42% of quarters since 1999 (usual range). Return on assets is 77th percentile (usual range); free cash flow yield 83rd, higher than in 92% of quarters. BKE sits cheaper than its industry.
| Metric | Percentile now | Usual range | Against its history | Last 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquirer's Multiple | 23rd | 12th–38th | Usual range | |
| Free cash flow yield | 83rd | 47th–81st | Near its highest | |
| Shareholder yield | 64th | 47th–81st | Usual range | |
| Dividend yield | 26th | 25th–56th | Lower than usual | |
| Return on assets, 5-yr | 77th | 65th–86th | Usual range | |
| Debt to equity | 61st | 8th–66th | More debt than usual | |
| Company size | 43rd | 29th–49th | Usual range |
The industry's median stock as a percentile of all investable US stocks on each number. For the Acquirer's Multiple and debt to equity, lower is better: the 10th percentile is cheaper than 90% of the market. For yields, returns and size, higher is bigger. Usual range covers the middle 80% of quarters since 1999; it's the shaded band in each chart. Each chart is zoomed to its own range (the numbers on the left): green shading marks the metric's better side and red its worse side, the dashed line is the 50th percentile, and the dot is today, coloured by where it sits.
No live catalyst; special dividends are the only cash return.
No buyback in three years (410,655 shares remain on a 2008 plan), no activist, no bid. Special dividends of $2.50–$3.00 return cash. Founder's 31.4% stake limits a takeover.
Catalyst check
Likelihood of a catalyst: LowNo live catalyst found: no buyback, activist or bid, and a founder holding 31.4% makes a takeover hard; special dividends are the only cash return.
Founder control and cooling sales are the main blockers.
Returns are near normal (96th percentile vs median 97th), so the multiple isn't flattered. Founder holds 31.4%. September comps rose only 0.5%; insiders sold. An illustrative 20% fall in operating income implies $37.97.
Value-trap check
Grades miss that much of the 9.2% dividend yield is special payouts the board can skip.
The company drove the early swings; sector and market drove later ones.
BKE +84.8% over five years vs peers +32.6%, XLY +23.9%, S&P 500 +76.9%. 2022–23 swings were company-driven; the 2025 tariff drop and later slide trace to sector.
Five years of moves
BKE +84.8% since 2021-10-26, against the median of AEO, ANF, BOOT, URBN, ZUMZ +32.6%, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +23.9% and the S&P 500 (SPY) +76.9%. Numbered dots mark inflections (peaks and troughs); shaded bands mark divergences from the sector or market.
What drove each turning point
| # | Turning point | BKE | Peers | Sector | S&P 500 | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Divergence vs sector · 2022-04-01 → 2023-01-06 | +54.8% | −19.8% | −28.2% | −13.2% | Company |
| Company-driven: BKE gained 54.8% as peers fell 19.8% and the sector fell 28.2%. Comps stayed positive and a $3.00 dividend was declared Dec 5, 2022. SEC filing; SEC filing; SEC filing; SEC filing | ||||||
| 2 | Trough · 2022-07-01 → 2023-01-13 | +78.7% | +36.9% | +0.3% | +5.4% | Company |
| Company-driven: no event at the trough, but BKE then rose 78.7% against peers +36.9% and sector +0.3%, with $61.4 million Q3 net income and a special dividend. SEC filing; SEC filing; SEC filing | ||||||
| 3 | Divergence vs sector · 2023-01-06 → 2023-07-14 | −22.9% | +35.7% | +33.1% | +16.6% | Company |
| Not among the most significant turning points; not researched. | ||||||
| 4 | Peak · 2023-01-13 → 2023-05-26 | −28.7% | −6.7% | +9.1% | +5.8% | Company |
| Company-driven: the peak fell on the special dividend record date. BKE then fell 28.7% as peers fell 6.7% and the sector rose 9.1%; April comps fell 10.2%. SEC filing; Yahoo Finance (1280 days ago) | ||||||
| 5 | Trough · 2023-05-26 → 2024-12-06 | +86.9% | +73.8% | +55.0% | +47.7% | Market |
| The trough hit on weak Q1 results (comps −9.2%). The 86.9% rebound was largely market-wide: peers +73.8%, sector +55.0%, market +47.7%. SEC filing; SEC filing | ||||||
| 6 | Peak · 2024-12-06 → 2025-04-11 | −30.4% | −39.7% | −18.1% | −11.6% | Sector |
| Sector-driven: April 2025 tariffs hit the whole market. BKE fell 30.4%, less than peers (−39.7%) but more than the sector (−18.1%) and market (−11.6%). en.wikipedia.org; trefis.com (122 days ago) | ||||||
| 7 | Trough · 2025-04-11 → 2025-09-19 | +77.0% | +52.7% | +27.5% | +25.0% | Sector |
| Sector-driven: the trough came two days after the tariff pause. BKE rose 77.0% against peers +52.7% and sector +27.5%, helped by Q2 comps up 7.3%. Yahoo Finance (538 days ago); SEC filing | ||||||
| 8 | Divergence vs market · 2025-04-25 → 2025-09-05 | +71.1% | +70.0% | +19.2% | +17.9% | Sector |
| Not among the most significant turning points; not researched. | ||||||
| 9 | Divergence vs market · 2025-09-05 → 2026-09-18 | −26.1% | −17.7% | −4.8% | +19.3% | Sector |
| Not among the most significant turning points; not researched. | ||||||
| 10 | Peak · 2025-09-19 → 2026-09-18 | −27.8% | −18.0% | −7.3% | +16.0% | Sector |
| Not among the most significant turning points; not researched. | ||||||
Prices: daily closes. Peers chosen by the AI analyst as the closest US-listed businesses. Moves are over each window: for a peak or trough, the move that followed it. Driver is Company, Sector or Market; see Definitions below.
Every report on BKE
Each AI analyst report as it was published, with the share price that day and the move since (today $48.22). Past performance is not a guide to the future.
| Report | Price then | Since | What it said |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026Latest | $48.12 | ▲ +0.2% | No live catalyst, but a 9.2% dividend yield backs a cheap, high-return apparel retailer · Catalyst: Low |
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Definitions
- Acquirer's Multiple®
- Enterprise value ÷ operating income (trailing 12 months). What an acquirer would pay for the whole business against what it earns before interest and tax. Lower is cheaper.
- Enterprise value
- Market cap at today's price, plus debt, preferred stock and minority interests, less cash.
- Operating income
- Trailing 12 months, after depreciation and amortization.
- Operating earnings yield
- Operating income ÷ enterprise value: the Acquirer's Multiple turned upside down.
- Free cash flow yield
- Trailing 12-month free cash flow (cash from operations less capital spending) ÷ market cap.
- Shareholder yield
- Trailing 12-month dividends plus net buybacks (shares bought back less shares issued) ÷ market cap. Dividend yield and buyback yield are its two parts.
- Return on assets
- Trailing 12-month operating income ÷ total assets at the latest quarter.
- Net debt : market cap
- Debt less cash, as a share of market cap. Negative means net cash.
- E(r)
- Expected annual return if the Acquirer's Multiple doesn't change. It has three parts: return on assets (what the business earns on what it owns); incremental growth (return on assets × the reinvestment rate, where the reinvestment rate is five-year average capital spending ÷ five-year average total assets: what reinvested capital adds); and shareholder yield (what is paid out through dividends and buybacks). E(r) = return on assets × (1 + reinvestment rate) + shareholder yield.
- 10-year Treasury
- The latest monthly 10-year US Treasury yield, the risk-free rate the yields are compared with.
- Percentiles
- Where the stock sits among investable US stocks (price above $3, market cap above $75M, average daily trading above $850,000, no ADRs or MLPs), updated each week. Each is the percentile of the number itself: for the Acquirer's Multiple (here EBIT ÷ enterprise value) and debt (total debt ÷ book equity), lower is better; for yields, five-year average return on assets and market cap, higher is bigger. Stocks outside the investable set, such as ADRs, are placed against it.
- Industry and sector
- FactSet RBICS industry. Industry and sector medians are the middle investable stock's percentile. Industry history is that median each quarter since 1999; the usual range is the middle 80% of quarters.
- Turning points
- Inflection points are the peaks and troughs where the stock's trend reversed by about 25% or more on weekly closes; each is compared over the move that followed. Divergences are stretches where the stock pulled away from its sector fund or the S&P 500 by about 20% or more. Each is set against its peers' median, its sector fund and the S&P 500 over the same window. Driver: Market if the market moved with it (same way, at least half as far) and so did its peers or sector; Sector if only its peers or sector did; Company otherwise.
- Value-trap grades
- Return on assets: Strong at 10% or more, Mixed at 5% or more. Net debt : market cap: Strong at 30% or less, Mixed at 100% or less. Free cash flow yield: Strong at 10% or more, Mixed at 5% or more. Shareholder yield: Strong at 8% or more, Mixed at 3% or more.