During his recent discussion with Jawad Mian at the 2025 Sohn Investment Conference in New York, Steve Cohen was asked, “Are we in a recession or not? Is this a bull market or a bear market?”
His take is measured. “God, if you asked me that question a week ago, two weeks ago, I might have given you a slightly different answer… but it’s still— I look at it pretty simply… we’re not in a recession yet.” That said, “we think it’ll probably be, you know, like a 45% chance of recession… even if it’s not the definition recession, it’s definitely going to be slowing growth.”
Cohen is watching the data closely. “What I’m looking for is… yeah the markets have rallied, it’s great… I want to see when the data turns down how the market’s going to react and that’ll tell me a lot about whether we’re priced correctly or not.”
As for where we are now: “I just view it as we’re sort of in a trading range for a while.” For him, the shift from 2024’s strength has been clear. “I was trying to get [my PMs] to think that we’re in a different regime… what worked in the past is not going to work this year.”
When things get tough, Cohen leans on experience and repetition. “The first thing is your analysis… and then the second part is… pattern recognition.” And yes, doubt creeps in, even for him. “I mean, you always have doubt… the only thing you can go to is go back to your process… you’re not going to always get it right… but if your process is consistent and you believe in your process… that’s what you go back to.”
He sees slumps like any pro athlete might. “I own a baseball team… and I have some of the greatest players… and they go through slumps… you could be doing phenomenally, have two bad days, and start to have self-doubt.”
Looking ahead. “I’m going to be 69… so time is not forever… I’m much more cognizant of where I spend my time… making sure I’m spending it with the people I want to spend it with.” And that big goal? “I want to win a World Series… that would be kind of fun.”
You can watch the entire interview here:
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