In their recent episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Cassel, Taylor, and Carlisle discussed Cathie Wood Says AI Could Lead To 50% GDP Growth. Here’s an excerpt from the episode:
Tobias: We got Cathie Wood’s predicting. So, I get how she’s going to do 30% to 50% a year. That’s what the GDP’s going to do.
Jake: That’s just GDP performance. That’s just in line with GDP. [laughs]
Bill: I need to read this tweet again.
Jake: Well, that wasn’t very long.
Bill: No, I read it the first time and I didn’t quite– I thought that she was saying 30% to 50% growth. But then I read it the second time and they said that it was like– I thought that I read that it was 30% to 50% improvement on AI or something which reduced from 30 years out to 16 years out, which last I checked doesn’t matter.
Tobias: So, I have– [crosstalk]
Bill: Oh, she actually did say could accelerate a growth in GDP from 3% to 5% a year to 30% to 50%. Wow, that’s pretty sweet. I’m down, unless, it’s just 30% to 50% inflation.
Jake: Oh, she didn’t say real.
Bill: No, she did not.
Bill: That shit would suck.
Tobias: The thesis is, it took thousands of years for growth to increase from 0.03% to 0.3%.
Tobias: But only a few hundred years for it to increase from 0.3% to 3%.
Jake: So, let’s just keep drawing a straight line and then–
Bill: It checks out.
Tobias: If you naively extrapolate this trend, you predict that growth will increase again from 3% to 30% within a few decades.
Bill: That’s so dope. This is going to be great.
Jake: Dope or dopey.
Bill: No, it’s going to be sweet.
Jake: Oh, okay.
Bill: Growing 30% to 50% a year, that’s going to be really cool. That’s about what my waistline is working on.
Tobias: The funny thing is though, it’s all sort of slowed down materially since 2000, isn’t it? I thought 2000 was our top-rated GDP growth and we’re slowing.
Bill: Yeah. I think that you’re using facts and stuff, which is frowned upon.
Tobias: It could just be a pause. We could just be pausing getting ready to ramp.
Bill: Yeah, dude. 100%. [crosstalk]
Tobias: What does the world look like if 50% increase in GDP on year-on-year basis?
Bill: Yeah, it’s going to be sweet. Because obviously, it’s all going to be real.
Tobias: That’s one way to do it I guess.
Jake: What is [crosstalk] per capita?
Bill: You want to know what the world’s going to look like? Let’s see. The high GDP growth is 1942 at 19%.
Jake: That was all tanks.
Bill: Let me see. If I recall, 1942 was a great time to be alive.
Jake: Yeah, that was airplanes, tanks, bombs.
Bill: Yeah, fun.
Jake: That’s not really where you want your GDP to go.
Bill: We’re going to have real GDP growth and when we go to war with China and Russia, it’s going to be amazing.
Jake: Please, no.
Tobias: I hope not.
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