During this week’s episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Taylor, Brewster, and Carlisle discuss @LAForeverHall’s Thought Provoking TweetStorm:
Tobias Carlisle: The tweet storm that you we’re going to discuss, Bill, I’m just going to jump the gun a little bit. But the tweet storm that you had. Liz, LAForever, one of the tweets was because people are living longer and we’re maybe at some tipping point where people can maybe live forever. Interest rates in that scenario go to virtually zero, which is why… Because the market is a discounting machine, markets are forward looking beasts. We’ve already kind of started discounting to zero. How do you feel about that?
Bill Brewster: I’m fading that one.
Jake Taylor: Didn’t the US just… Our longevity like tick down for the first time in 50 years or something?
Bill Brewster: Here he comes again. Here comes Debbie Downer.
Jake Taylor: I know, I just…
Bill Brewster: Come on, man.
Tobias Carlisle: That might be the average, though.
Jake Taylor: Yeah, no, I’m saying that…
Tobias Carlisle: Deaths and childbirth.
Jake Taylor: It’s the first time in forever we actually… Your next group didn’t live as long as… is not projected to live as long as the cohort before it.
Tobias Carlisle: Do the Japanese live longer than anybody else? They got to that zero interest bound before everybody else did.
Bill Brewster: That’s right.
Tobias Carlisle: So, maybe there’s something to it.
Jake Taylor: Maybe.
Bill Brewster: Jake, I think their point… I think that’s drug related. I could be wrong, but…
Jake Taylor: Oh, maybe.
Tobias Carlisle: I jumped the gun a little bit. Do you want to introduce your topic, Bill?
Bill Brewster: No, let’s just start talking about it. This take that she had… I mean, look. This woman is obviously really intelligent. That particular take, I thought, is like way cooler to talk about than real. I don’t care if humans start living for 200 years, they still can’t delay gratification.
Jake Taylor: It’s true.
Bill Brewster: I mean, what, you’re going to tell me because I’m wait 200 years to die that I’m not going to want to have something now? Like get out of here. THat’s anti-human.
Jake Taylor: It’s not YOLO.
Bill Brewster: It’s not YOLO at all. And if we know anything, it’s that YOLO is strong to quite strong these days.
Tobias Carlisle: So, we’re talking about… There’s a great… How many tweets in the tweet stream? 87 or something like that.
Jake Taylor: A hundred.
Bill Brewster: I think it’s up to a hundred now.
Tobias Carlisle: A hundred.
Jake Taylor: It’s a hundred, yeah.
Tobias Carlisle: Liz, LAForever is the Twitter handle, and there were several great tweets that you were going to mention, Bill.
Bill Brewster: Yeah, the two that I thought were really interesting, especially on the back of our Buy, Trade, Sell segment was she said… Well, it’s three. So, 17, 18, and 25 I think they are. “Company narrative metagame management is one of the primary roles of a good CEO and most do a poor job of it. Managing your narrative is a big aspect of capital allocation and can create or destroy fortunes for your shareholders.” Then she goes on, “This is why Elon Musk may be one of the greatest CEOs of all time, especially if you think Tesla is worthless. Narrative management and capital allocation alters intrinsic value.” And then she keeps going and she says, “In highly reflexive businesses, short sellers are kind of like economic terrorists by reducing the range of possible intrinsic value outcomes.”
Bill Brewster: And I think that’s pretty interesting. Look at… what is Amazon if Bezos doesn’t know how to deliver that message to the street from day one? What is Netflix if Reed Hastings doesn’t know how to deliver his message and get that leash? What is Disney without Iger right now going through this transition? There’s a way to see Disney where they got in a bidding war with Comcast. They overpaid for these assets to get Marvel because they’re desperate to get growth. Disney+ is like an offset to ESPN, which has massive headwinds and Disney’s failing. But Iger’s there and he’s got this sweet book and he’s Iger. I don’t say that like… That matters, right? And it’s all true.
Tobias Carlisle: He’s very likable, Iger.
Bill Brewster: That’s right. And he’s a visionary and he did… I’m not sounding proper because the Pixar deal was super forward looking and he’s done a lot of really good things and I’m not trying to be sort of denigrating to his record, but I do think that him being here totally changes the lens that people are willing to give to the company. And that matters a lot, especially when you may need to go out and do an acquisition and stock is your currency or potential currency and… Buffett, it’s super hard to argue that him and Berkshire has not been a massive benefit to all the shareholders. In addition to his allocation skills, who is getting them through the Solomon crisis and whatnot, I mean all that stuff really matters. So, I thought those were interesting.
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